After more than two years of confusion, anger and uncertainty, not to mention four elections, Israel believes it has finally found what it has been looking for--a new Prime Minister. Just minutes before the final deadline to do so, politicians Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced they were ready to create a new coalition government.
Under their arrangement, the Right-Wing Bennett will be PM for the government's first two years. The Center-Left Lapid will be Prime Minister for the government's last two years.
Following that announcement, there was singing and dancing in some of Israel's streets. Some happy Israelis were celebrating the apparent fact that the man they hated most--Benjamin Netanyahu--has finally been removed!
The celebrants were ecstatic that the "evil one"--that is, the one who was the hypocrite, the political traitor and the corrupt, immoral criminal ( the so-called 'Crime Minister' Netanyahu)--was really gone. Finally, the 'Crime Minister' would no longer darken Israel's proverbial political doorstep!
They celebrated: three cheers for democracy! Three cheers for the triumph of Light over Darkness!
Hurray! Or, maybe not.
Despite all the media hoopla, all the dancing in the street and, most important, all the wishful thinking of Israel's Netanyahu-hating media, this 'new government' is not a done deal. Far from it. This deal will only become real after it has been finalized by a vote of the Knesset sometime on or after June 7th--maybe. Until then, Netanyahu's political career remains alive.
Actually, until that vote, Netanyahu is still very much in the fight. Make no mistake. Israel's premier political infighter will fight to survive. The battle to replace him is not over.
This coalition has only 61 members, representing just 61 seats in the Knesset. It is the slimmest margin possible to create a ruling coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. One single defection from this 61-member coalition would kill the deal because a 60-seat coalition would have no majority in the 120-seat body. To control just 60 of 120 seats means you may not be able to pass any legislation. You won't have a 'majority'. In theory, the coalition deal would die before anyone would be sworn in.
Many in Israel soft-peddle the possibility that this new government could fail. Few in the media want to admit their dream of destroying Netanyahu might yet fail. They are desperate to see Netanyahu gone. They report what they wish to see happen, not what is really happening.
That's not exactly professional reportage. Failure is surely a possibility here because this coalition is a monstrous creation. It will not be a stable government (here). It will be an incoherent government (ibid). Instead of unity, it brings together Parties so ideologically diverse that there's a real possibility nothing will ever be agreed upon--or get done.
If you thought the Netanyahu-Gantz unity government was a waste of time, think again. This new unity coalition could be ten times worse.
There are little shared ideological beliefs within this coalition. Instead of creating a unified voice, it creates a confused mixture of Left, Center and Right ideologies. Indeed, the only shared belief is not even ideological. It is the belief that 'we all hate Netanyahu'. That's it.
There is little else beyond that one belief. The ideologies of these Parties are simply too contrary, one to the other, to work together. The infighting within this coalition promises to be far worse than what was rumored to exist in the Netanyahu-Gantz coalition.
In addition, news outlets report that this will be the first coalition in nearly 50 years with real Arab representation in it. The Arab Party that is scheduled to enter the coalition will present real pressure from Israeli-Arabs to forward Arab beliefs and causes. Some of these beliefs and causes will not sit well with Israel's Right.
But to survive, the coalition needs every one of those 61 members to agree on all agenda items. That will never happen.
Indeed, the Arabs themselves could collapse the coalition. They have already secured a promise from Yair Lapid that when they join the coalition there will be no movement to increase gay and lesbian rights in Israel. Now, reports arise to say that the Labor Party--a Leftist member of the coalition--will seek to promote one of its primary political agenda items: gay and lesbian rights.
How is that going to work out? Well, right now, the Arabs in the coalition have received a promise that they will get more than 50 billion shekel for Arab-specific issues. That's a lot of money. 50 billion. Will they take that money and be silent about gay rights--or not? If not, the deal will be dead.
Certainly, Netanyahu is not finished fighting for his political career. He could prevail. Or, he could fail. The jury is still out.
Stay tuned. This drama has not ended.
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