What Israel's four elections in two years were really all about

(Last update: March 26, 2021) 

Less than 48 hours after the end of Israel's 4th national election in 2 years, some things appear to have become clear.  While much had changed for this fourth-in-a-row and latest election, the outcome in this election was no different than the previous three. No one defeated Netanyahu. The election was also as inconclusive as the previous three--as if Israel is so uncertain about what it wants, it cannot make up its mind.

Netanyahu won again, as he had in each of the previous three elections. But, again, he appears to have no clear path to being able to form a government (here).

This election brought something new to our elections. First, it brought new politicians to the fray. It also brought in new political Parties. 

It didn't matter. Neither changed the final result. 

Once again, Netanyahu got the most votes. Once again, he couldn't corral enough seats to form a government.

Once again, all is not lost for Netanyahu's enemies. As with the three previous elections, days after this election ended, Netanyahu's enemies could still get their wish. Netanyahu could still lose.

Don't bet on it. Yes, enough votes have already been counted to tell us that Netanyahu will have problems trying to form a ruling coalition. But he may suffer no real "defeat". The worse that might happen to him is that there will be yet another election. 

That is, there could be another election run against Netanyahu, unless anti-Netanyahu forces in the Knesset succeed in passing legislation to keep him out of the next election. Right now, that would be their best plan to get rid of Netanyahu. Ban him from runnning (here).

The thought process here is, if voters keep voting for Netanyahu, his political enemies cannot beat him. Therefore, damn the voters. Damn the ballot box. After all, Netanyahu is a tyrant (his enemies say)--and Israel is a democracy. Therefore, if the politicians in the Knesset ban him, Israel's democracy will be protected, right? 

Netanyahu's enemies have already tried to do this. They failed. Voters just kept voting for him. 

Damn the voters. Will Netanyahu's enemies succeed in  banning him this time--or will this just be another example of doing the same thing over and again, always expecting a different result?

To get a good look at how Israel's "political madness" plays out, read here. You may even learn why that madness occurs.

Israel has a surplus of ego-inflated politicians who call to protect democracy (their reason for getting rid of Netanyahu) while having no idea what makes a country a democracy in the first place (the ballot box). These wonders-of-the-world repeatedly engage in election insanity. They love that insanity. They blame Netanyahu's ego for Israel's woes when what they should do is look into a mirror to see why Israel is in such a mess. But they won't do that. I think they claim they can't find an honest mirror. 

From reading what Israel's politicians say, it would appear that Israel's election woes are caused by Benjamin Netanyahu himself. Yes,  it's all Netanyahu's fault. You see, election after election, Netanyahu wins. He always wins at the ballot box. Always. 

The more he wins, the more his political enemies hate him. They cannot wait to get rid of him. They see him as a kind of curse.  

For me, these politicians are wrong. They miss what there is to learn from the four election failures. 

These four elections were not about Benjamin Netanyahu, even though just about everyone and his nephew said it was. These elections were not about "protecting Israel's democracy", even though half of Netanyahu's enemies said it was. These election were also not about Netanyahu-is-a-dictator-who-must-be-replaced, even though the other half of his enemies said it was.

These four elections were about something else entirely, something I believe amounts to an unspoken national, Jewish secret. It is a secret Israelis are so afraid of, they refuse to recognize it. 

But this 'secret' is there, all right, driving every one of these four elections. In fact, if there is to be a fifth election, this national, Jewish secret will drive that election, too.   

One of the few hints we saw this year that this "secret' truly exists came recently from one of Israel's chief Netanyahu-haters, politician Avigdor Liberman. About a month ago, Liberman had declared (correctly, I believe) that, in this election, Israelis are going to have to make a choice. They will have to choose between voting for "an insane messianist government [that is, a Netanyahu government] or [a] Zionist-Liberal government [that is, a non-Right, non-Religious secular government]" (here). 

Unwittingly, Liberman identified the single most important truth about these bitter, hate-filled elections: these elections were never about Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname). They were never about electing "anyone but Bibi". They were never about "protecting democracy"--or ridding Israel of a dictator.

These elections have always been about just one question: does Israel want to be a Jewish state, or does Israel want to be a Liberal-secular state? That's what Liberman's "choice" was about.

The problem for many here is that half of Israel simply does not vote to select a Liberal-secular government. Few in Israel have ever discussed, let alone anaylsed or explored, this issue. It seems taboo. It seems too painful--or, perhaps, too challenging--to approach. No one wants to confront it, least of all those secular activists who continue to challenge Netanyahu--and cry aloud against him.

Israel is in pain. The 'advertised' pain over "Netanyahu" is nothing more than a fig leaf. It hides what for many in Israel seems to be a matter of personal shame--Israel's "Jewishness". 

The ballot box tells us half of Israel wants to be 'like everyone else'--that is, not Jewish, not religious. Many in Israel look at life in Europe. They look at life in the US and Canada. That's the life they want: liberal, secular and definitely not Jewish.

Israel has lost its true North. Israel exists because it is the Holy Land populated by the Holy people, the Jews. Israel does not exist to be 'like everyone else'.

Half of Israel mourns this reality. Half of Israel does not.

The spiritual-political angst created by the "halving' of Israel's voters provokes a communal angst. It is an identity crisis (who are we?) that has become the proverbial 800-pound gorilla sitting at the back of Israel's political stage. Everyone knows it's there. Everyone steers clear of it. No one dares acknowledge it. 

This week's election illustrates the point. According to early poll results (whose final tally in any event should differ by no more than 3% or 4%) show 49.2% of Israelis favor a government that will be "Jewish" over being "Liberal-secular"; and 50.8% of Israelis prefer a government that will be "Liberal-secular".   

The margin of error here is probably +/- 3.5%. This means that by the time all votes are counted, the final vote could be switched from what it is today--to something like 51% in favor of "Jewish", 49% in favor of "Liberal-secular". Or, not. 

If you want to explain to a friend what in the world is going on in Israel, it might be wise to start with this preliminary 49.2%-50.8% split. Simply put, Israel cannot decide what it wants to be, a Jewish state, or a secular state. It is tearing itself apart over this, spending so far 14 Billion shekel for four elections that have settled nothing. Israel is still 50-50 on this question.

Did you know an identity crisis could be this expensive? In Israel, it is.

This identity crisis splits us. We have seen some version of this 50-50 split in each of the last four elections, elections which are truly shrill and literally full of sound and fury. But each of these elections ends up signifying nothing--except the need for another (expensive) election. 

Perhaps it can be useful to look at this situation this way: the Jewish Holiday of Pesach (Passover) is just a couple of days away. This particular Holiday celebrates the Jewish redemption from slavery in Egypt. Our Sages teach us that this isn't just about our past redemption. It is also about our future, Final Redemption. 

Jews have varying opinions about this Final Redemption. Some believe it is nowhere in sight. Some say it doesn't exist. But more and more among us have begun to think that our Final Redemption is in fact close. For this group, our Final Redemption is either near, imminent or virtually upon us, depending upon whom you ask. 

That's how close some believe Israel to be to the end of history as we know it. For some, it suggests how close we are to reaching our promised Destiny--just at a time when 50% wants something different--Liberal, secular, not "Jewish".

Pesach 2021: just as the Jews of ancient Egypt had to choose between history and Destiny, between Jewish and not-Jewish, so must we. In large part, that's what I see in these futile elections. Both the ancient Jews of Egypt and modern Jews of Israel share an identity crisis: Jewish or secular? We cannot decide.

This identity-decision is what these unending elections have been about--not Netanyahu, corruption, dictatorship or democracy.  In ancient Egypt, the choice for Jews was between staying as slaves inside the world's wealthiest and most advanced nation (Egypt), or joining with Moshe (Moses), to leave behind all wealth and comfort in order to step out into the desert for the unknown. To a certain extent, that's what Israel's election s have been about.

In the end, our Heitage teaches us that 80% of those ancient Jews chose to remain in Egypt. As a result of that choice, they were swallowed up. They disappeared forever. The remain ing 20% chose to go with Moshe. Only 20% chose to become G-d's Holy people. Only they survived. 

Jews in Israel face a similar decision. The good news is, today, more than 20% choose "Jewish". Today, some 49.2% choose "Jewish".  

When you sit down at your Pesach Seder on March 27, 2021,  you will read about the story of our Redemption from Egypt. As you read, remember the 80% who chose to stay in Egypt. Remember what Liberman said about Israel's modern choice: we must choose Jewish or secular--just as those Jews in Egypt had to choose.

Stay tuned. The stories of our modern angst--and our Redemption--are not over.  

In the meantime, happy Pesach!

Another Israel election (March 23, 2020): disenfranchising Israel's voters?

(Last update: March 19, 2021)

My wife and I made aliyah to israel more than 10 years ago. Since a Prime Minister's term in Israel is supposed to be four years, we should have seen only two national elections during these past ten+ years--or, alternatively, we might have expected to see perhaps three such elections, depending on when in a four-year election cycle we came here.  

But we haven't seen two (or three) national elections since we came in 2010. We've seen five elections. Number six will be held next week, March 23rd. Why? Because Israel has a broken election system. 

This is a problem. A broken election system means a broken democracy (here). 

In a democracy, national elections give citizens the power to choose their national leader. Indeed, national elections are, arguably, the most fundamental characteristic of a democracy. 

But Israel's election system fails to grant this right to its citizens. It fails democracy's most basic test.

Israel's elections do not empower Israeli voters. It disenfranchises them. That is, an Israeli election takes the power of the ballot box away from voters and hands the actual selection of a Prime Minister to others. 

This is the first hint that Israel's voters may be disenfranchised. It isn't the only such hint. 

As I have written before, the first thing that happens in Israel after election results are in is that everyone turns away from the voters' choice to focus instead on the nation's unelected President. His job is, essentially, to push the voters' choice aside. Ignoring ballot box results, he consults (by law) with all political Parties which have succeeded in getting elected into the Knesset during that election. He asks the leader of each political Party in the Knesset just one question: who will you support to be Prime Minister? 

Voter disenfranchisement begins here because the candidate with the most votes is not entitled to the support of any political Party in the Knesset except, of course, from his own Party, of which he is the leader (which means he gets to name himself as the candidate he will support for national leader). In fact, to answer the President's question (about whom to name to be national leader) Party leaders in the Knesset can choose anyone for Prime Minister, including themselves. The voters' ballot box choice is ignored.

The President's goal with his one question is to find out which candidate in the recent election will be supported by the most political Party leaders. Each Party leader controls --on paper, at least--Knesset seats his own Party has won in the recent election. Typically, a political Party in the Knesset will control anywhere between 4 and 30+ seats. The President's job is to tally the number of seats Party leaders say they will 'commit' to the candidate in question.

Here is where a voter gets a second hint he has been  disenfranchised. Israel's President has to make a decision about which political Party leader in the Knesset he will ask to form a "coalition government" for Israel. He is not obligated to choose the obvious vote winner. 

No one in Israel can become Prime Minister until he demonstrates to our President that he can attract enough Party leaders to commit at least 61 Knesset "seats" to him. There are 120 seats total in the Knesset. Therefore, 61 seats means a majority. It means a candidate with 61 seats (in theory) "loyal" to him through agreements with Party leaders will--in theory--"control" a majority of the Knesset.The candidate who can do that becomes Israel's national leader.

To understand how this part of Israel's election process disenfranchises Israel's voter, look at what happened after last year's election (March 2020). First. the two leading vote-getters in that election were Benjamin Netanyahu and his major rival at that time, Benny Gantz. Netanyahu won the most votes of the election. Gantz won the second most votes. Netanyahu's Party won 36 seats in the Knesset, the largest number of any Party. Gantz's Party was runner-up, with 33 seats.

If the President's task was just to do arithmetic, Netanyahu would have gotten the nod to attempt to form a coalition government--because the arithmetic said the important numbers--vote total and seats won--clearly favored Netanyahu. But he didn't get that nod. Benny Gantz got it.

The reason Gantz got the nod to attempt to form a government is simple: the President's role in this part of the election process isn't about numbers. It certainly isn't about total votes in the election. It's about who the President feels has the best chance to get the commitments needed to attract the 61 seats necessary to become Prime Minister.

Put another way, the reason this part of the election process disenfranchises the voter is that it depends not on a ballot box vote count. It relies only upon one unelected man's feelings. Feelings. Those feelings focus on one idea: which candidate does the President feel has the best chance to gather in those 61 "commitments". Vote count--or, what the voters felt when they went to the ballot box--is irrelevant.

The President's involvement in our election process seems to be a form of voter disenfranchisemen because it takes the country's selection process completely out of the voters' hands. But--worse than than--it introduces the selection process to what some might call a form of political corruption. Israel's election process requires the candidate to work with politicial rivals to manipulate the election's purpose for Party leaders own, private gain. 

Typically, an Israeli Knesset will have 10-12 Parties. This number can, of course fluctuate. In 2020, Gantz had to talk to something like 10 Party leaders to see who would help him form a 61-seat majority.

The need to pass through such a "consultation" process is the second hint that Israel's voters get disenfranchised. 

This part of Israel's election process works like this: once Israel's President chooses one candidate to make the attempt to convince enough of his political rivals to "join" with him to form a ruling coalition of at least 61 seats, the candidate begins what might be called either politics-at-its-best or, alternatively, politics-at-its-worst. What happens in practice, however, isn't so much politics as it is a political form of "horse-trading".

For this political version of "horse-trading", each Party leader who has told the President that he supports the candidate in question will now officially meet with that candidate. In 2020, that meant something like 10 individual meetings with Benny Gantz. At these meetings, each Party leader was to make his case for helping the candidate to create a ruling coalition. Party leaders typically make their case by asking the candidate just one question: how many Government Ministries will you give to my Party to control in order to convince me to join your government? 

The problem with this "horse-trading" is that a candidate has campaigned for office on a political platform. That platform lays out what will be--at least in theory--the candidate's plan to govern. But this horse-trading subverts that plan. Party leaders are not interested in the candidate's plan to govern. They are interested in their own plans. They will never join with  anyone who refuses to bend his campaign promises to meet the needs of the Party leader. 

These meetings, in other words, rewrite what a candidate can do in office. The candidate, through those Ministrry appointments, esse ntially gives up his control of those  Ministries to rivals, most of whom absolutely have their own ideas about what they want to do. 

This may be why, in Israel, there used to be a saying: "if you vote Left, you will get a Leftitst government. If you vote Right, you will get a Leftist government". 

For most politicians in Israel, getting to be Prime Minister is  not so much based on the ability to attract voters, as much as it is based on how well you can bastardize your governing political agenda to get those 61 seats.

This is not how a democracy is supposed to work. But it is how Israel's election system works. It was what Gantz had to experience on his way to securing the right to be named Prime Minister.

Gantz got the nod to seek those seats, all right. But he couldn't do it. He could not attract the commitments he needed. He failed.

That meant that the President had to make that same decision again, this time without Gantz in the mix (he had just failed). Once again, Netanyahu was the obvious choice. But the President was not obligated to choose him. He could have chosen anyone.

In the end, Netanyahu got that chance. He made it work. But while he was able to form a coalition government, he couldn't create a coalition that could actually work together. The government failed. Hence, next week's election.

In Israel, voters do not select their Prime Minister. The  unelected President, along with politicians in the Knesset get that power. 

In Israel, the country's unelected President has what is, for all intents and purposes, the final say in our election process. Certainly, by the time the President gets involved in the process--days, if not weeks after the election has ended--the voters' wishes have been completely forgotten. This is called voter disenfranchisement.

Today, Israel is less than a week away from another election. Netanyahu could be next week's winner. If he wins again, he will again need to attract those 61 seats. 

This--attracting those 61 seats--is where Israel's voters will be trashed. If voters going to the polls choose Netanyahu again to lead this country, that wish will be ignored: there are simply too many politicans who hate Netanyahu so much they say they will not help him to form a new government. Their own  campaigns have been based on this claim. They want him gone--the voters be damned. They even ran on  "anyone-but-Bibi" platforms.

The voice of Israel's voters will be silenced. Yet again, Israel's voters will be disenfranchised. 

This is not how a democracy is supposed to work. But it is how a badly run democracy-in-name-only works. It is also how Israel's so-called "defenders of democracy" use their personal, selfish goals and hatreds to both ignore the people's will and drive Israel to the precipice of political paralysis.

The moral of this story is this: it is possible that the Final Jewish Redemption will, ultimately, repudiate many of the ideas of Western Liberalism, including how a government is supposed to look. Will this election crisis turn out to be the catalyst that provokes for Israel that repudiation process? 

Stay tuned. Maybe we'll get lucky next week. Perhaps our fourth election in two years won't turn out to be yet another election failure. Then again...

A potental Corona "rebellion" has evaporated--for now

 

In last week's essay, below, you saw how Israelis reacted to an official lockdown requirement for the Jewish holiday, Purim--February 24-25, 2021. That lockdown, public officials said, was necessary to keep the Corona pandemic from spiking. Officials were concerned that Israel's Purim parties would act as super-spreaders. Officials feared social-distancing and mask requirements would be ignored during parties.

The government semed to believe a Purim lockdown was a great idea. It wasn't. It failed.

Israeli reaction to a Purim lockdown seemed to be as close to open rebellion as anything Israel has seen during this pandemic. First, despite the lockdown, few parties were stopped. Every city in Israel saw lockdown violations.  

In addition, some party-goers went so far as to attack police who tried to stop them from partying. Israelis seemed fed up.  They were, it would appear, ready to fight for their right to party. 

That was 12 days ago.  Since then, Corona cases have not spiked. New cases have fallen. 

This was good news, indeed. It meant that health officials could breath a sigh of relief. Their worst fears had not materialized.

As part of that relief, Israel's Corona Czar, Prof. Nachman Ash, has now declared there will be no lockdown for Israel's next national election on March 23rd. He also announced there would be no lockdown for Israel's next holiday celebration, Pesach (Passover) (here). 

Ten hours later, we saw yet another announcement: for the Pesach seder, "a gathering of more than 20 people in a closed space will be possible" (here). 

This was very good news. But was it wise? Pesach is more than two weeks away. It begins on the night of March 27th. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that no one can predict anything during a pandemic for a period of time two weeks out. How do officials know there will be no new covid case spike between now and then?

Apparently, announcing 'no Pesach lockdown' more than two weeks in advance of Pesach causes Prof Ash no concern. He must feel certain there will be no spike in new Corona cases within the upcoming two weeks. Does he know something the rest of Israel doesn't?

My guess is, his announcement was an attempt to extinguish any chance for a public Corona rebellion. After all, no holiday  lockdown means no public anger over Corona rules. No public anger means no pressure to protest or openly defy or openly attack authorities over Corona issues.

Does this mean Pesach will be free of public anger over  Corona restrictions? Does it suggest there will be no reason for a "Pesach Corona rebellion"? More important, does it mean we're finally headed for some good news about Corona?

Stay tuned. This pandemic is not over. 

 

Is Israel headed towards a Corona rebellion?

Before Purim 2021 in Israel began, police and public health officials announced that Purim parties of all types, whether religious or secular, were to be canceled. Yes, Purim might be termed by some a "Party holiday". But this year, police and health officials said, there would be no  partying. 

The rationale for canceling all parties was simple: the pandemic wasn't over. Officials saw partying as a Corona super-spreader. In theory, therefore, fewer parties meant less Corona patients 10-14 days down the line (after the disease incubation period).

That line of thinking looked sound. But it didn't work. It failed. Miserably.

On Purim 2021, Israeli police had their hands full with stamping out parties. They handed out hundreds of fines.  By Saturday, they had broken up over 200 parties (here).  Many of these were street parties. This meant that, after police broke them up, they just moved to another street. 

People were clearly in no mood for any more Corona "don'ts". They wanted their freedom. They wanted to party.

That's why police reported that, in Israel, every city saw Purim party violations. Every city.  

For religious Jews, Purim parties aren't held on a Saturday--the Jewish Shabbat.  But in secular Israel, Shabbat isn't a religious day. For Israel's seculars, the Shabbat after this year's Purim was just a day to continue partying. 

That day proved to be a particularly heavy party day. The police seemed overwhelmed (here). 

 Health authorites were horrified. They had reason to be.

To track the progress or regression of a pandemic, it is helpful to know how many people each pandemic patient infects. This information can then be translated into a number, called the infection coefficient ratio. An infection coeffient ratio of 1.00 means, in theory, that a pandemic can be controlled, as each patient infects, in theory, only 1 other person. A coefficient ratio of 5.0 means, in theory, that the pandemic spreads aggressively because each Corona patient infects, in theory, 5 other people. An infection coefficient ratio less than 1.00 means, in theory, that fewer people are being infected by each patient. It means infection spread is not out-of-control. In theory, an  infection coefficient ratio below 1.00 means a pandemic will begin to recede. 

What health officials always want to see are infection coefficient ratios below 1.00. In fact, by February 21st, some 4 days before Purim, Israel's infection coefficient ratio had dropped to .83--a sure sign that the pandemic was easing, not spreading (here). 

That was good news. But it was only temporary. The bad news was, over the next two days, by February 24th--the day before Purim--Israel's infection coefficient ratio had jumped to .94 (here). The spread of Corona was increasing, not receding--and Israel's health authorities knew this. 

Did they share this information with us? If they did, few got the message. Certainly, those party-goers didn't get it--or, worse, they got the message but didn't care. 

Was their partying a form of a Corona rebellion?

The probem Israel faces is, if the spread of this pandemic threatens to increase, not recede, authorities could feel forced to announce another lockdown for the next Jewish holiday--Pesach (Passover). That holiday is now just three weeks away. 

The thought of trying to lock down Pesach must terrify officials.  You see, Pesach (Passover) may be more important to Israelis than Purim. It is arguably the most family-oriented holiday in Israel. That means extended family gatherings for the Pesach seder. That could lead to enhanced violations of social distancing requirements. Those violations could cause the pandemic to spike.

Will Israelis do on Pesach what they had done on Purim--violate lockdown, travel and social distancing requirements? It's possible.

Over Purim, the problem was more than partying. Some Israelis openly defied Police warnings, in yet another indicator of rebellion. Intent upon getting to Jerusalem to celebrate Purim, these Israelis drove their cars towards Jerusalem's city limits. When stopped by police at "checkpoints", they simply abandoned their cars (at the checkpoints) and walked the rest of the way to the city. Some even attacked police trying to stop them (here). 

On Pesach, many Israelis--especially seculars--will drive to their family seder. Will police try to stop them, too? How will they react to being stopped?

Over the next two weeks, the corona infection incubation period will tell us pretty clearly what communal damage, if any, will have been caused by all those Purim parties. If Israel's infection coeficient ratio grows higher than 1.00, we could see another holiday lockdown. The bad news here is, on March 4, that ratio was already at .99. 

Will it go higher? 

Purim has proved that people have become increasingly averse to coercive public rules. Israelis are tired of covid restrictions. They want their "normal" back. They want their freedom back. They are losing patience. 

Look at the question of a potential Corona rebellion this way: Israelis reacted  badly to the Purim lockdown; never forget that people are less likely to obey covid rules after they've been vaccinated (here): therefore, how will Israelis react if, just before Pesach (with as many  as 70% of Israel's population having taken both covid shots), health authorities decide to call for a Pesach lockdown because covid case numbers are still too high? 

Do you believe Israelis will sit still for that lockdown?

Stay tuned. This drama isn't over. Neither is the Coronavirus.