Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Is Israel unprepared for Iran?

By the end of April, 2013, war with Iran appeared to creep closer. First, former Israeli Military Intelligence head, Maj Gen (Res) Amos Yadlin announced that (in his opinion) Iran had crossed the nuclear ‘red line’ set in 2012 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, the US announced that Syria had crossed another red line by using chemical weapons in its civil war. Finally, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin warned that failure by the US to act against Syria for its use of chemical weapons would show Iran that the US will not act when a ‘red line’ is crossed, thereby convincing Iran that US threats are meaningless.

By the end of May, 2013, we saw Israeli airstrikes inside Syria (an Iran surrogate), more allegations of chemical weapons use by Syria, and Syrian gunfire against Israel.

Now, June, 2013, we are looking at Syrian tanks at the border with Israel—and UN forces wanting to leave the Syrian-Golan area.

Is there an Iran-inspired noose tightening around Israel’s neck?

Popular belief asserts that Israel is frozen in this noose for several reasons: it doesn’t have the aircraft to complete a  round-trip attack against Iran; its aircraft cannot carry the bomb loads necessary to destroy facilities deeply embedded in underground Iranian manufacturing redoubts; and its non-nuclear weapons are not up to the task.

But popular belief focuses exclusively on the capabilities (and limitations) of the Israel Air Force (IAF). Is that how Israel will attack Iran (should it decide to attack)? Is the IAF the only way Israel can create an Iran mission?

Here’s a look at some of Israel’s non-IAF options for a raid on Iran. All the information you’ll see is from public sources.

Cyberwar. We have already seen cyberwar against Iran. We saw it as, Stuxnet and Flame, two malware assaults of 2012 that disrupted Iran’s nuclear production facilities.  In September, 2012, The Guardian of England reported that  cyberwar against Iran was far more sophisticated than had previously been understood.  We have not seen the end of these attempts. They could play a crucial role—on many levels—during an attack on Iran.

Israel’s navy. You may not know this, but Israel has a navy. It’s not big. But it is at the cutting edge of naval warfare. Two items are noteworthy. First, Israel’s naval arsenal of long-range surface-to-surface missiles grows in both size and sophistication almost monthly. Second, Israel has perhaps the most sophisticated non-nuclear submarines in the world. They are operational, and they are equipped to carry submarine-launched-cruise-missiles with a reported range of at least 1,500 km. They can strike Iranian nuclear sites from the Persian Gulf—and elsewhere. They can carry either nuclear or non-nuclear warheads. 

Buck Roger’s science-fiction.  In September 2012, The London Sunday Times reported that Israel had developed a ‘science-fiction’ weapon that could send all of Iran’s communications and electronics back to the Stone Age. It’s called, Electromagnetic Impulse (EMP). EMP is said to cause non-lethal gamma energy to react with the earth’s magnetic field to produce a powerful electromagnetic shock wave that is reported capable of destroying both electronic devices and Iran’s nuclear production computer infrastructure. In August, 2012, the WorldNetDaily reported that Israelis have not ruled out a missile launch to detonate a single electromagnetic pulse warhead at a high altitude over Iran.

This is indeed a weapon from science fiction. It sounds like  nonsense. Is it?

Satellites. Satellites hovering high in the sky do not necessarily mean ‘outer-space’ warfare. But as of July, 2012, Israel was reported to be one of only eight nations that have produced and launched satellites into space. Currently, Israel is said to have ten operational satellites, mostly for military purposes.

One of those ‘military purposes’ could surprise Iran.

Drones.  Most people think of drones as small and portable. That’s true. But Israel’s military has two intriguing drones that might be used in a far-away war. Both are reported to be armament-capable. One of these drones is said to be capable of flying to Iran and back. 

The other drone is unique (no details provided).

Covert action. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) is no stranger to long-distance covert operations. We have seen reports of such action in the Sudan, Syria and the Persian Gulf. ‘Covert’ covers a lot of options. It could include cyberwar or men-on-the-ground-in-the-dark. Israel has already been reported to be operating covertly in Iran.

Contrary to popular belief, Israel is not stuck. It does not need to hesitate. Its arsenal is not limited to air attack or a nuclear-only option. It does not need to penetrate mountains in Iran. It can launch a navy-based attack to render useless Iran’s nuclear facilities (by destroying entrance roads, tunnel entrances and facility-servicing power plants)—and then keep pounding away until nuclear production shuts down--all with less-than-average risk to IDF personnel.

Our Heritage teaches that Israel will rise like a lion before its enemies. Iran has never seen a lion like this.

Israel is ready.





1 comment:

  1. Thank you Dr. Brodie from another honest view of todays events through the looking glass of a Torah Background.