(Last update: March 26, 2021)
Less than 48 hours after the end of Israel's 4th national election in 2 years, some things appear to have become clear. While much had changed for this fourth-in-a-row and latest election, the outcome in this election was no different than the previous three. No one defeated Netanyahu. The election was also as inconclusive as the previous three--as if Israel is so uncertain about what it wants, it cannot make up its mind.
Netanyahu won again, as he had in each of the previous three elections. But, again, he appears to have no clear path to being able to form a government (here).
This election brought something new to our elections. First, it brought new politicians to the fray. It also brought in new political Parties.
It didn't matter. Neither changed the final result.
Once again, Netanyahu got the most votes. Once again, he couldn't corral enough seats to form a government.
Once again, all is not lost for Netanyahu's enemies. As with the three previous elections, days after this election ended, Netanyahu's enemies could still get their wish. Netanyahu could still lose.
Don't bet on it. Yes, enough votes have already been counted to tell us that Netanyahu will have problems trying to form a ruling coalition. But he may suffer no real "defeat". The worse that might happen to him is that there will be yet another election.
That is, there could be another election run against Netanyahu, unless anti-Netanyahu forces in the Knesset succeed in passing legislation to keep him out of the next election. Right now, that would be their best plan to get rid of Netanyahu. Ban him from runnning (here).
The thought process here is, if voters keep voting for Netanyahu, his political enemies cannot beat him. Therefore, damn the voters. Damn the ballot box. After all, Netanyahu is a tyrant (his enemies say)--and Israel is a democracy. Therefore, if the politicians in the Knesset ban him, Israel's democracy will be protected, right?
Netanyahu's enemies have already tried to do this. They failed. Voters just kept voting for him.
Damn the voters. Will Netanyahu's enemies succeed in banning him this time--or will this just be another example of doing the same thing over and again, always expecting a different result?
To get a good look at how Israel's "political madness" plays out, read here. You may even learn why that madness occurs.
Israel has a surplus of ego-inflated politicians who call to protect democracy (their reason for getting rid of Netanyahu) while having no idea what makes a country a democracy in the first place (the ballot box). These wonders-of-the-world repeatedly engage in election insanity. They love that insanity. They blame Netanyahu's ego for Israel's woes when what they should do is look into a mirror to see why Israel is in such a mess. But they won't do that. I think they claim they can't find an honest mirror.
From reading what Israel's politicians say, it would appear that Israel's election woes are caused by Benjamin Netanyahu himself. Yes, it's all Netanyahu's fault. You see, election after election, Netanyahu wins. He always wins at the ballot box. Always.
The more he wins, the more his political enemies hate him. They cannot wait to get rid of him. They see him as a kind of curse.
For me, these politicians are wrong. They miss what there is to learn from the four election failures.
These four elections were not about Benjamin Netanyahu, even though just about everyone and his nephew said it was. These elections were not about "protecting Israel's democracy", even though half of Netanyahu's enemies said it was. These election were also not about Netanyahu-is-a-dictator-who-must-be-replaced, even though the other half of his enemies said it was.
These four elections were about something else entirely, something I believe amounts to an unspoken national, Jewish secret. It is a secret Israelis are so afraid of, they refuse to recognize it.
But this 'secret' is there, all right, driving every one of these four elections. In fact, if there is to be a fifth election, this national, Jewish secret will drive that election, too.
One of the few hints we saw this year that this "secret' truly exists came recently from one of Israel's chief Netanyahu-haters, politician Avigdor Liberman. About a month ago, Liberman had declared (correctly, I believe) that, in this election, Israelis are going to have to make a choice. They will have to choose between voting for "an insane messianist government [that is, a Netanyahu government] or [a] Zionist-Liberal government [that is, a non-Right, non-Religious secular government]" (here).
Unwittingly, Liberman identified the single most important truth about these bitter, hate-filled elections: these elections were never about Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname). They were never about electing "anyone but Bibi". They were never about "protecting democracy"--or ridding Israel of a dictator.
These elections have always been about just one question: does Israel want to be a Jewish state, or does Israel want to be a Liberal-secular state? That's what Liberman's "choice" was about.
The problem for many here is that half of Israel simply does not vote to select a Liberal-secular government. Few in Israel have ever discussed, let alone anaylsed or explored, this issue. It seems taboo. It seems too painful--or, perhaps, too challenging--to approach. No one wants to confront it, least of all those secular activists who continue to challenge Netanyahu--and cry aloud against him.
Israel is in pain. The 'advertised' pain over "Netanyahu" is nothing more than a fig leaf. It hides what for many in Israel seems to be a matter of personal shame--Israel's "Jewishness".
The ballot box tells us half of Israel wants to be 'like everyone else'--that is, not Jewish, not religious. Many in Israel look at life in Europe. They look at life in the US and Canada. That's the life they want: liberal, secular and definitely not Jewish.
Israel has lost its true North. Israel exists because it is the Holy Land populated by the Holy people, the Jews. Israel does not exist to be 'like everyone else'.
Half of Israel mourns this reality. Half of Israel does not.
The spiritual-political angst created by the "halving' of Israel's voters provokes a communal angst. It is an identity crisis (who are we?) that has become the proverbial 800-pound gorilla sitting at the back of Israel's political stage. Everyone knows it's there. Everyone steers clear of it. No one dares acknowledge it.
This week's election illustrates the point. According to early poll results (whose final tally in any event should differ by no more than 3% or 4%) show 49.2% of Israelis favor a government that will be "Jewish" over being "Liberal-secular"; and 50.8% of Israelis prefer a government that will be "Liberal-secular".
The margin of error here is probably +/- 3.5%. This means that by the time all votes are counted, the final vote could be switched from what it is today--to something like 51% in favor of "Jewish", 49% in favor of "Liberal-secular". Or, not.
If you want to explain to a friend what in the world is going on in Israel, it might be wise to start with this preliminary 49.2%-50.8% split. Simply put, Israel cannot decide what it wants to be, a Jewish state, or a secular state. It is tearing itself apart over this, spending so far 14 Billion shekel for four elections that have settled nothing. Israel is still 50-50 on this question.
Did you know an identity crisis could be this expensive? In Israel, it is.
This identity crisis splits us. We have seen some version of this 50-50 split in each of the last four elections, elections which are truly shrill and literally full of sound and fury. But each of these elections ends up signifying nothing--except the need for another (expensive) election.
Perhaps it can be useful to look at this situation this way: the Jewish Holiday of Pesach (Passover) is just a couple of days away. This particular Holiday celebrates the Jewish redemption from slavery in Egypt. Our Sages teach us that this isn't just about our past redemption. It is also about our future, Final Redemption.
Jews have varying opinions about this Final Redemption. Some believe it is nowhere in sight. Some say it doesn't exist. But more and more among us have begun to think that our Final Redemption is in fact close. For this group, our Final Redemption is either near, imminent or virtually upon us, depending upon whom you ask.
That's how close some believe Israel to be to the end of history as we know it. For some, it suggests how close we are to reaching our promised Destiny--just at a time when 50% wants something different--Liberal, secular, not "Jewish".
Pesach 2021: just as the Jews of ancient Egypt had to choose between history and Destiny, between Jewish and not-Jewish, so must we. In large part, that's what I see in these futile elections. Both the ancient Jews of Egypt and modern Jews of Israel share an identity crisis: Jewish or secular? We cannot decide.
This identity-decision is what these unending elections have been about--not Netanyahu, corruption, dictatorship or democracy. In ancient Egypt, the choice for Jews was between staying as slaves inside the world's wealthiest and most advanced nation (Egypt), or joining with Moshe (Moses), to leave behind all wealth and comfort in order to step out into the desert for the unknown. To a certain extent, that's what Israel's election s have been about.
In the end, our Heitage teaches us that 80% of those ancient Jews chose to remain in Egypt. As a result of that choice, they were swallowed up. They disappeared forever. The remain ing 20% chose to go with Moshe. Only 20% chose to become G-d's Holy people. Only they survived.
Jews in Israel face a similar decision. The good news is, today, more than 20% choose "Jewish". Today, some 49.2% choose "Jewish".
When you sit down at your Pesach Seder on March 27, 2021, you will read about the story of our Redemption from Egypt. As you read, remember the 80% who chose to stay in Egypt. Remember what Liberman said about Israel's modern choice: we must choose Jewish or secular--just as those Jews in Egypt had to choose.
Stay tuned. The stories of our modern angst--and our Redemption--are not over.
In the meantime, happy Pesach!
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