Before Purim 2021 in Israel began, police and public health officials announced that Purim parties of all types, whether religious or secular, were to be canceled. Yes, Purim might be termed by some a "Party holiday". But this year, police and health officials said, there would be no partying.
The rationale for canceling all parties was simple: the pandemic wasn't over. Officials saw partying as a Corona super-spreader. In theory, therefore, fewer parties meant less Corona patients 10-14 days down the line (after the disease incubation period).
That line of thinking looked sound. But it didn't work. It failed. Miserably.
On Purim 2021, Israeli police had their hands full with stamping out parties. They handed out hundreds of fines. By Saturday, they had broken up over 200 parties (here). Many of these were street parties. This meant that, after police broke them up, they just moved to another street.
People were clearly in no mood for any more Corona "don'ts". They wanted their freedom. They wanted to party.
That's why police reported that, in Israel, every city saw Purim party violations. Every city.
For religious Jews, Purim parties aren't held on a Saturday--the Jewish Shabbat. But in secular Israel, Shabbat isn't a religious day. For Israel's seculars, the Shabbat after this year's Purim was just a day to continue partying.
That day proved to be a particularly heavy party day. The police seemed overwhelmed (here).
Health authorites were horrified. They had reason to be.
To track the progress or regression of a pandemic, it is helpful to know how many people each pandemic patient infects. This information can then be translated into a number, called the infection coefficient ratio. An infection coeffient ratio of 1.00 means, in theory, that a pandemic can be controlled, as each patient infects, in theory, only 1 other person. A coefficient ratio of 5.0 means, in theory, that the pandemic spreads aggressively because each Corona patient infects, in theory, 5 other people. An infection coefficient ratio less than 1.00 means, in theory, that fewer people are being infected by each patient. It means infection spread is not out-of-control. In theory, an infection coefficient ratio below 1.00 means a pandemic will begin to recede.
What health officials always want to see are infection coefficient ratios below 1.00. In fact, by February 21st, some 4 days before Purim, Israel's infection coefficient ratio had dropped to .83--a sure sign that the pandemic was easing, not spreading (here).
That was good news. But it was only temporary. The bad news was, over the next two days, by February 24th--the day before Purim--Israel's infection coefficient ratio had jumped to .94 (here). The spread of Corona was increasing, not receding--and Israel's health authorities knew this.
Did they share this information with us? If they did, few got the message. Certainly, those party-goers didn't get it--or, worse, they got the message but didn't care.
Was their partying a form of a Corona rebellion?
The probem Israel faces is, if the spread of this pandemic threatens to increase, not recede, authorities could feel forced to announce another lockdown for the next Jewish holiday--Pesach (Passover). That holiday is now just three weeks away.
The thought of trying to lock down Pesach must terrify officials. You see, Pesach (Passover) may be more important to Israelis than Purim. It is arguably the most family-oriented holiday in Israel. That means extended family gatherings for the Pesach seder. That could lead to enhanced violations of social distancing requirements. Those violations could cause the pandemic to spike.
Will Israelis do on Pesach what they had done on Purim--violate lockdown, travel and social distancing requirements? It's possible.
Over Purim, the problem was more than partying. Some Israelis openly defied Police warnings, in yet another indicator of rebellion. Intent upon getting to Jerusalem to celebrate Purim, these Israelis drove their cars towards Jerusalem's city limits. When stopped by police at "checkpoints", they simply abandoned their cars (at the checkpoints) and walked the rest of the way to the city. Some even attacked police trying to stop them (here).
On Pesach, many Israelis--especially seculars--will drive to their family seder. Will police try to stop them, too? How will they react to being stopped?
Over the next two weeks, the corona infection incubation period will tell us pretty clearly what communal damage, if any, will have been caused by all those Purim parties. If Israel's infection coeficient ratio grows higher than 1.00, we could see another holiday lockdown. The bad news here is, on March 4, that ratio was already at .99.
Will it go higher?
Purim has proved that people have become increasingly averse to coercive public rules. Israelis are tired of covid restrictions. They want their "normal" back. They want their freedom back. They are losing patience.
Look at the question of a potential Corona rebellion this way: Israelis reacted badly to the Purim lockdown; never forget that people are less likely to obey covid rules after they've been vaccinated (here): therefore, how will Israelis react if, just before Pesach (with as many as 70% of Israel's population having taken both covid shots), health authorities decide to call for a Pesach lockdown because covid case numbers are still too high?
Do you believe Israelis will sit still for that lockdown?
Stay tuned. This drama isn't over. Neither is the Coronavirus.
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