Israel's media elite say Israel has a covid crisis. Five months ago, that wasn't true. Five months ago, most everyone in Israel was content to follow Netanyahu's covid decisions. We even celebrated those decisions.
Today, that's not the case. Today, there is a real question whether or not Israelis will be compliant if a new national lockdown is required.
In April, 2020, when the Israel's covid was less than two months old, Israel was lauded for how it controlled the covid pandemic. Now, less than five months later, that's no longer true. Today, many in Israel believe what we've got here is a failure--to stay healthy and to control covid.
Those Israelis already angry at Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blame him for what they say is a corona debacle. These 'anti-Netanyahuers' are up-in-arms. For example, on July 18, 2020, police outside Netanyahu's official residence in Jerusalem had to use water cannon to disperse protesters who had come into Jerusalem to protest against the Prime Minister for both his alleged corruption--and to protest against his "handling" of the corona "crisis" (here). Less than a week later, many in Israel (76% of Israelis) believed that Netanyahu had "failed" to manage the "corona crisis".
Those protests continue. Sometimes, they're in the streets nightly.
In April, 2020, Netanyahu's management of the pandemic sent his poll number through the 'roof'--to almost 70% approval (here). By July, his poll numbers had dropped to 34% (here). By Sept, some 65% of Israelis (here) were reported unhappy with Netanyahu's handling of the pandemic (here).
While there is no doubt plenty of people to share the blame for our corona mess, is this 'crisis' really the result of Netanyahu suddenly losing all of his management skills in less than 120 days? Or, is the apparent chaos we see the result of something else--a corona "mistake"--and not Netanyahu?
I think you'd be wise to give this potential "mistake" a good hard look. It might explain why Israel has had its surge of corona cases.
The first hint that some kind of mistake--or, perhaps, error of thinking-- might be in play here was a news story that appeared in the US, in August, 2020, in The New York Times (here). This story suggested that as many of 90% of US corona positive results might contain such insignificant amounts of corona DNA as to be non-contagious (ibid).
The culprit, the article reported, was something called a lab 'amplification cycle'. This lab 'cycle' process could be the real reason Israel sees such a corona case increase in Israel--not government (or Netanyahu's) alleged newly-found incompetence.
My sources tell me that Israel uses a corona test called the RT-PCR (here). This test begins with a swab sample taken from one's nose or throat. The swab then goes to a lab, which then tests the swab for corona DNA (here).
In order to help detect the virus's DNA, the lab 'amplifies' the sample taken. That is, the lab enlarges the sample. The larger the amplification, the easier it is to 'see' the virus DNA. Samples can be enlarged several times. It will be enlarged until virus DNA is found.
The larger the DNA 'load' on the swab, the easier the corona DNA is to spot--and the fewer amplifications needed to spot it. Once corona DNA is found, the testee whose swab is being tested is declared 'positive' for having corona.
I believe I can give you an example of how amplification works: when I write this blog, I can choose to type in the smallest typeface.
Or, I can amplify to this size.
Or, I can amplify to this size.
Or, I can amplify to this size.
Or, I can amplify to this size.
As you see, the more I amplify, the greater the size--and the easier for you to read. In theory, at least, this is how the corona test works. It amplifies the DNA on the swab. The greater the amplification (magnification), the easier the DNA is to see.
Now, what happens if the corona DNA found on the swab only shows up after the lab has amplified the sample 30 or 35 times? Is that corona DNA strong enough to mean the person tested actually has a contagious case of corona? Or, has that corona DNA been, essentially, magnified so much that only the smallest amount of DNA ends up being found; is that amount medically significant? Indeed, is such a small amount of DNA potentially non-contagious? (see this video; wait for the :50 mark):
The Times article pointed out that the US 'amplifies' its individual samples up to 40 times (Israel news reported that the US amplifies app 34 times here). Israel, by contrast, appears to amplify its corona DNA samples up to 37 times to detect corona DNA (here). Not much different.
The US reports 6,549,771 total corona cases since the beginning of the pandemic, in January-February, 2020. Israel's total-cases-since-inception adds up to 143,049.
Do these totals reflect how widespread the corona pandemic has been? Or, do they reflect how sensitive the corona RT-PCR tests are? Has anyone even asked this question?
Shouldn't we know how much magnification of corona DNA is necessary in order to find viable/ contagious corona? Actually, do we know at all at what point such magnification means that the corona DNA found becomes too small to be 'dangerous'/contagious?
We don't have answers to these two question. So far as I can tell, no one has a clue.
Some experts say DNA amplified more than 30 times may not be viable. That is, amplifying corona DNA more than 30 times could reveal corona DNA that is "inactive, dead, or clinically insignificant' (here). The results, they suggest, could be a false positive. They even suggest that in the three states studied in the US it is possible that 90% of corona positive results could have been based on corona DNA too small to be medically important.
Yes, that 90% figure is the result of studying only three states. But the population of those three states is still more than twice the population of Israel.
In Israel, could amplifying our DNA samples up to 37 times play a role in the recent corona surge? Is this why we've recently seen such a surge of positive results?
Shouldn't we be asking this question?
When a person tests positive for corona, s/he and his/her family--and, often, friends--must go into isolation. They cannot work. They cannot earn money. They cannot go to school, if of school age.
As we have all discovered, when enough people are pulled out of circulation for up to two weeks, the economy stumbles. Personal financial situations are damaged.
Maybe--just maybe--Israel's corona crisis isn't Netanyahu's fault. Remember, Netanyahu is not a lab technician or lab scientist. He relies on 'experts' to give him the advise he needs to act. If those experts tell him that 37 DNA magnifications are absolutely necessary for every age range, how would he know how to respond?
He wouldn't.
Has anyone looked into this question--for every age range?
Perhaps we should stop throwing stones at this government over this particular issue and take a closer look at how Israel actually tests its corona swap samples. Perhaps we should:
--ask Israeli scientists to tell us first how many times a corona DNA sample is amplified in Israel, for every age range.
--ask Israel's scientists to tell us at what point amplifications begin actually to yield false positives--for every age range.
--ask Israel's scientists, based upon a study of our test results since March, 2020, how small can corona DNA be and still remain powerful enough to kill--for every age range?
Of course, there are other questions, including: shouldn't Israel's scientists issue a standard lab protocol for amplification, so as to protect us all from being victimized by what might turn out to be a false positive?
These questions are not definitive. They are suggestive. They are not exhaustive. But they seem to be more useful than political invective. Maybe we should be asking more questions about this corona--and cut back on the political condemnations. At the very least, we might all end up with healthier blood pressure numbers.
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