Could the UAE-Israel accord destroy Mahmmoud Abbas' Middle East 'veto'?

When Israel, the United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced some four weeks ago that the UAE and Israel would sign a peace deal, many pundits saw this announcement as representing a tectonic shift for the Middle East. The UAE is only the third Arab country since 1948 (after Egypt and Jordan) to sign a peace deal with Israel. Indeed, the UAE will be the first Arab country to choose peace with Israel in 26 year, since Jordan signed a treaty with Israel in 1994.

This deal is big. It could change the entire political dynamic of the Middle East. With Iran working to develop nuclear weapons so as to  dominate the Middle East, an Arab-Israel peace Accord could place the nuclear-tipped Israel as the key player in a new Middle East "united defense pact" (against Iran). 

If that political change happens, it would be one that centers around what the Middle East calls, 'normalization'. 'Normalization' may not mean much to you.  But to the Middle East, it means everything--because Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has made it 'everything'. 

Abbas has repeatedly demanded that there never be any Arab normalization with Israel. 'Normalization' means two things to Abbas. First it means economic cooperation. For Abbas, any official cooperation with Israel is unthinkable because it would mean an explicit recognition that Israel exists. 

That's the second important thing about 'normalization'. To cooperate with the Jewish state means to Abbas that you accept Jews as a legitimate people in the Middle East. Normalization with Israel means you can establish 'normal' ties with Israel. That, for Abbas, is unacceptable. 

Because normalization means cooperation and recognition, Abbas has worked hard to control Arab dealings with the Jewish state. He has created an anti-normalization war against Israel--and he has organized his Arab allies to support him in that effort. 

For Abbas, any talk of 'normalization' with Israel by an Arab country is a "stab in the back to Palestinians" (here). He has never tolerated 'normalization'. He will never tolerate such talk.

Therefore, for Abbas, this UAE-Israel deal is dangerous. Abbas maintains such tight control of the Arab world's stance towards Israel that he is said to hold a virtual veto power over any peace arrangement anyone in the Middle East could attempt to make with Israel (here). The UAE-Israel peace  deal now threatens that veto power.

When the UAE deal was announced, pundits, policymakers and politicians outside the Arab world speculated that once the UAE broke the Abbas veto, other Arab nations would follow. Some suggested names include Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Sudan and Bahrain. Would any of these Arab nations be next to normalize with Israel? 

Well, if any other Arab nation actually did that, Abbas could be shown up for what he is--a bankrupt, isolated, tinpot despot trying to control several modernized, wealthy Arab nations who are now more afraid of Abbas's friends in Iran than of Abbas's so-called 'veto'. 

All that is needed to humiliate Abbas are two or three other Arab nations to sign deals with Israel. Will that happen? 

It's only been about four weeks since the UAE-Israel deal was announced. For the Middle East, a month is a little too quick for such seismic changes. 

Nevertheless, during the week of September 14, 2020, when the UAE and Israel are scheduled to join US President Trump at a ceremony in Washington, DC to sign their Accord, they won't be alone. The Persian Gulf state of Bahrain has--just days ago--stepped up to normalize ties with Israel. Bahrain will, therefore, join Israel, the UAE and Trump in Washington (here).

In less than four weeks, two Arab nations stand ready to normalize official ties with Israel. Will that be the death of the Abbas veto over Arab ties with Israel?

Stay tuned. This peace story isn't over.