Monday, March 23, 2020

How do Israel's voters respond to the ongoing battle between Gantz vs Netanyahu?




March 2, 2020 is the date which represents the end of the so-far-unsuccessful-third-of-three-elections-to-elect-Israel’s-next-PM. Since March 2, the animosity we saw during the election between political challenger Benny Gantz and the current PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, seems only to have gotten worse. 

For those of a certain age, the back-and-forth attacks between these two men seems more like a Mad Magazine rerun of the famous (and never-ending) ‘Spy-vs-Spy’ cartoon. This cartoon depicted two Spies (secretly) setting bombs against each. The ongoing cartoon battle between these two Spies appeared in consecutive issues for years. Each cartoon was original, used the same bomb theme—and was typically funny.

But you've got to be of a certain age to appreciate both the reference and the humor. For the rest of you, the battle between Gantz and Netanyahu isn’t so funny. It’s either deadly (to Israel’s democracy)—or ridiculous, possibly a little insane. It's likely to kill any chance for a unity government between the two men.

Blue-White (B-W) blasts Netanyahu for post-election tactics that, it claims, lead Israel towards a dictatorship (here). B-W wants the Knesset open for business. It wants to seize control of the Knesset so as to give B-W the ability to shape all legislation according to its own, B-W political agenda. It claims that Netanyahu's refusing to allow the Knesset to open puts Israel's democracy at risk (here). B-W calls keeping the Knesset closed a ‘threat to democracy' (here).

Indeed, to B-W, Netanyahu leads Israel to a dictatorship (here). Everything about Netanyahu is, suddenly, ‘dictator-like’. For such Never-Netanyahu-ers, even his (so far successful) handling of the coronavirus pandemic is "authoritarian" (here).

Meanwhile, Netanyahu hasn't remained silent in the face of these attacks. He attacks Gantz. 

Netanyau says that it is Gantz who "undermines the foundations of democracy" (here). Netanyahu accuses Gantz of trying to steal the election (here) by trying to unseat him (Netanyahu) through a new, after-the-fact and retroactive law to disqualify Netanyahu from leading Israel during its transition period--because he’s been indicted. 

In this accusation, Netanyahu may have a point. According to the UN, democracy and the rule of law are "interlinked and mutually reinforcing" (here). They are "indivisible" (here): they cannot be separated.

This means that a democracy requires the rule of law.This, in turn, means that the current law in Israel regarding an indicted PM is Israel's democracy (see below). 

Moreover, changing the current law now in order to retroactively dump a PM, may well be undemocratic--because of something called retroactivity and justice in a democracy. 

One of the hallmarks of a democracy is how it creates and implements new law: a democracy requires that political power be exercised through "generally applicable rules" which are "announced in advance" and then implemented uniformly and impartially [emphasis mine]" (here, p. 46). Put another way, democracies don't implement new law, especially punishment for crimes, retroactively. 

A State that is committed to the rule of law cannot undermine the rule of law. But that's exactly what a retroactive law to disqualify Netanyahu would do (here, p 221ff).

In Israel, the current law is clear. A Prime Minister can  be barred from serving in his office only after he has been found guilty of crimes--and all appeals have been exhausted. Gantz assaults Israel's democracy by trying to change this law with with a new, retroactive law for Netanyahu. It is, just as Netanayahu claims, an assault on the foundations of democracy (above, ibid). 

Netanyahu clearly wants the 'current rule of law' to be followed--until perhaps it is changed to apply to future Prime Ministers, not himself. That's fair. It's how a democracy (see above) is supposed to work--by declaring in advance what a law is to be,  and then implementing it fairly. 

Netanyahu claims that it is undemocratic for B-W to overturn the current law to dump Netanyahu retroactively. That's also fair for a democracy. 

Overturning the current law would indeed subvert the voters' choice--"will of the people" (here)--who gave Netanyahu 132,000 more votes than Gantz. Netanyahu calls such a law change by B-W as something one would find in Iran: an "Iranian" law (here), not a democratic law.

Gantz doesn't care. He attempts to pass a new law against Netanyahu and then implement it retroactively. But, clearly, again, in a democracy that's not how the 'game' is played--especially for laws involving crimes. Such retroactivity is contrary to the foundations of a democracy.

Does Gantz actually know what are the foundations of a democracy? Does he know how the rule of law works? 

Oblivious, Gantz is confident. He feels that the most recent (third) election chose him to be PM. Therefore, his actions are justified.

But Gantz is wrong. Israel's arcane and complex election system doesn't give him the right to make such a claim, especially when Netanyahu collected 132,000 more votes than Gantz.

Does Gantz know how a democracy works? Given his attacks against Netanyahu, one has to wonder. 

This last election did three things. First, it demonstrated that voters clearly chose Netanyahu over Gantz. Those voters  gave Netanyahu 132,000 more votes than it gave to Gantz; second, it gave Netanyahu 36 seats in the Knesset to Gantz’s 33 seats; and third, this last election pushed Gantz to betray those who voted for him.

After Gantz had pledged repeatedly during the three-election cycle that he would include in his government only those who were (1) Jewish, (2) Zionist, (3) not extremist, and (4) committed to working for the good of Israel, he betrayed his voters by doing the exact opposite after the election. His current plan to form his government by relying on the Joint List means that Gantz will form his Government by relying on those who are (1) not Jewish, (2)  not Zionist, (3) who are very, very extreme in their hatred of Israel (demonstrated by their own words), and (4) who clearly—again, by their own words--are very much not committed to working for the good of Israel (here), but for the dismantling of the Jewish Israel (here).

In short, if the third election in this current election cycle proved anything to Gantz, it proved this: first, that Israel's voters are far less concerned about Netanyahu's impending trials than Gantz and his Blue-White Party; and second, by giving Netanyahu 132,000 more votes than Gantz, voters very clearly chose the indicted Netanyahu over Gantz (ibid).

Nevertheless, Gantz won’t give up. His hatred of Netanyahu trumps everything, even Israel’s needs in a growing pandemic,which, by the way, may well be a plague not seen on this planet since the great flu epidemic of 1918-19, some 100 years ago.

Gantz persists in resisting a unity government. He places dumping Netanyahu and toppling Netanyahu’s current control of the Knesset (even before a new ruling government has been chosen) as his sole priority. He appears not even to be discussing with anyone his task of forming a new government. He focuses exclusively on taking control of the Knesset—so as to get that new law in place to disqualify Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, Rome burns. Yes, Israel valiantly fights the corona virus (in fact, better than the EU fights its own corona challenge)--but Israel fight on with one hand (the frozen Knesset) tied behind its back.

Gantz doesn’t care. He puts his hatred of Netanyahu before Israel.

How does Israel respond to these attacks? Do these incessant attacks from B-W hurt Netanyahu’s political standing? A recent poll tells the story: if there were now a fourth election, Gantz wouldn’t receive the 33 seats he’d earned in the last (third) election. His seat total would drop to 30. Netanyahu, meanwhile, wouldn’t receive the 36 seats he’d recently received; his seat total would jump to 40 seats (here).

Voters aren’t buying Gantz’s attacks. They’re increasingly supporting Netanyahu.

Where is that going to take Gantz? Stay tuned.





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