Have the wheels come off the Gantz election train?

Beginning a week before Israel's third election-in-a-row-in-a-year (to choose Israel's next Prime Minister), both Likud (led by Benjamin Netanyahu) and its major political rival, Blue-and-White (led by Benny Gantz), appeared to have taken off the proverbial gloves and gone bare-fisted at each other. This isn't to suggest that this campaign had been genteel up to that point. It wasn't. But now, beginning late February, some 6 days before the election, things got far more "personal".

It may have begun with Blue-White's number 2 leader, Yair Lapid, going on an anti-Netanyahu rant online, naming (by my count) more than 22 reasons why Netanyahu was unfit to be Prime Minister (PM) (here). Lapid didn't waste time trying to prove anything. He offered no details, just unvarnished political dirt: Natanyahu's unfit; he just wants to be like Turkey's dictator, Edrogan; he's unscrupulous; he lies; he badmouths people; he's corrupt; he's decided to destroy Israel's democracy'; he wants to destroy our courts; he abuses Israel's security; he abuses Israel's health; he abuses Israel's poverty (whatever that means); he cries endlessly about the media; he's burned out, etc, etc. So far as he's concerned, this election is about only one thing--"anybody but Bibi".

 Since then, the attacks from both sides have escalated. Netanyahu and Blue-White number three leader, Gabi Ashkenasi, called each other liars (here). Gantz jumped into the fray with,"you [Netanyahu] are poisoning Israel" (here) .

For his part, Netanyahu shot right back, "Gantz doesn't have what it takes to withstand international pressure against Israel (here). More: Gantz lacks the experience to know how to face such pressure (ibid). Netanyahu, in essence, questioned Gantz's ability to lead Israel in an era of open international hostility (ibid).

Gantz hit back. He accused Netanyahu of 'hate crimes against democracy' (here).

Former Israel PM Ehud Olmert--an avowed Leftist--called Netanyahu a liar, a cancer on Israel (here). He said of Netanyahu, "most of the country [Israel] does not like Netanyahu and therefore he cannot form a government" (sic) (ibid).

What? It doesn't matter. Olmert offered no explanation. But 
to further demonize Netanyahu, Olmert said something almost incomprehensible: He said of Netanyahu that Netanyahu had "met with murderers (unspecified) and I (Olmert) met with Abbas, who fights terror" [emphasis mine](ibid)!

All of the above transpired (or alternatively, was reported) as having transpired on just one day, February 26, 2020.

Laughably, there's Gantz's criticism of Netanyahu over Gaza. He accused Netanyahu of being incompetent because he (Netanyahu) had been unable to 'deter' Hamas in Gaza. But that's laughable because Gantz had been Army Chief-of-Staff in the latest (2014) war with Hamas--and he didn't argue to 'stop' (or to deter) Hamas once-and-for-all. He (and his boss, then-Defense Minister Moshe Yaa'lon--who's now a Blue-White co-leader) argued for something else: to 'manage' the conflict instead.

Then there's the issue of a non-Netanyahu policy towards Hamas. Gantz doesn't appear to have one. That is to say, while Gantz accuses Netanyahu of failing to stop Hamas in Gaza, he's so far not yet told Israel's voters how he would stop Hamas (here).

So what does all this mean? One can make perhaps three comments about this election, at this late, pre-election-day moment: first, Blue/White has all along argued that what's at stake in this election is the survival of democracy in Israel. But is that true?

Perhaps it's truer to say that what's at stake in this election is the reality that Israel's Left could grab power in Israel again. If you want to know what that means, think back to Israel's most recent Leftist PMs--Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak (here). Their tenure has been characterized as  'marked by failure' (ibid). Is that what Israeli voters want today?

The second point is that, at least for Blue-and-White, this election hasn't been about policy. It's been about attacking Netanyahu (remember that, 'anybody but Bibi' remark above by Lapid; that wasn't just a slogan--it's the Blue-White campaign strategy). 

What's the result of all these attacks? Well, it distracts from policy discussions. It makes voters forget to ask about policy. All they talk about is the latest dirt--which leaves voters in the dark. Are we really being asked to vote for a man (Gantz) whose policies are completely unknown?

The third point is that all these attacks suggest that Blue-White isn't interested in policy because their (unstated but Leftist policies) simply won't fly in Israel. Blue-White isn't campaigning to 'sell' policies. It's campaigning because it hates Netanyahu more than it cares about policy. 

That's a problem because if Blue-White wins, their 'hate-Netanyahu' ideology immediately evaporates. What will inevitably be left behind is policy; but we know nothing about what policies Gantz wants. Nothing.

Is this what Voters want? A leader who won't reveal what he believes in for Israel?

Is it possible that Gantz brings to the highest office of the land not only inexperience, but also an empty head? Is that why Gantz doesn't discuss policy? Is that why he won't debate? This has been Netanyahu's position against Gantz. Gantz has never addressed it. Does this suggest that Netanyahu is correct?

What's a voter to do?

The question of Gantz's fitness isn't just a talking point for Netanyahu. It's also, it now appears, an issue for his potential allies--and his own staff.

As the election fast approaches, we suddenly learn that Israel's current 'kingmaker'--the one politician who could give Gantz the 61 seats he needs to rule (Avigdor Liberman) now speaks exactly as Netanyahu: he questions Gantz's fitness to be Prime Minister (here).

As the election fast approaches, a tape recording also emerges of a Gantz adviser saying the same thing--but much more strongly (here). The adviser is heard saying that Gantz is a 'danger' to Israel. He lacks the courage to attack Iran, if that's needed.

In this same recording, or, alternatively, in a second recording (reports aren't clear about this), a Blue-White Member of Knesset is heard saying that Gantz is 'stupid and a nobody' and 'he can't be prime minister' (ibid). 

How many of these 'the man's-not-ready-yet-to-be-PM' do Israel's voters need to turn against him on election day? Is their hate of Netanyahu so great they don't care who takes his seat?

As the election fast approaches (it's tomorrow), there seems to be a slowly dawning realization that Benny Gantz just isn't ready to be Prime Minister. His military record wasn't so stellar, either (here). His campaigning record wasn't policy-oriented. His campaigning record was less about what he believes in and too much about 'I hate Netanyahu'; will all of this compel voters to put him into office?

UPDATE: yesterday, with something like 36 hours to go before voting polls opened, Gantz once again reiterated that he will not rely on Arab Parties to form a coalition government (here)

 But then, this morning--less than 24 hours before the election--Gantz and his Party made a different  announcement: after promising and promising and promising that he would not rely on the Arab (anti-Israel) political Parties to form a government, Gantz now says--at the 11th hour, no less--he could certainly do exactly that, if that was the only way to form a government . 

Whereas all through the campaign (after a brief flirting with the possibility of relying on Arab Parties), Gantz flip-flopped on his original idea of mating with the Arab Parties, he now says he will flip-flop again. He won't "rule out" relying upon those Parties (here). 

Why is his change of heart so important an issue? Israel's two Arab Parties are led by strongly anti-Israel leaders. For an Israeli Prime Minister to rely on Arab Parties led by avowed Israel-haters in order to meet the 61-seat minimum so as to be able to rule as Prime Minister, doesn't promise much. Such an arrangement could mean Gantz as Prime Minister could be held hostage (in decisions regarding what's best for Israel) by anti-Israel advocates. 

It works this way. Depending upon how election results actually fall out, a Gantz arrangement with Arab Parties could give these anti-Israel Arab Parties the power to collapse the government entirely if their demands aren't met. This means that, to stay in power, Gantz would have to do as these anti-Israel politicians demand; he will have to do as they say--or risk losing control of the government altogether. That's how Israel's Parliamentary system of 'a coalition government' works. 

For a coalition to survive the daily political battles it must face in the Knesset, its leader needs to know that his coalition partners are loyal. By their very nature, the anti-Israel Arab Party leaders will not be loyal. Their hatred of the Jewish Israel won't allow them to be loyal. 

Does Gantz have the backbone to withstand the pressure--and the threats to collapse the government--from the Arab Parties? Based upon what Netanyahu, Liberman and Gantz's own staff say, the answer is, no ,he won't have the needed backbone.

Israel lives in a dangerous, treacherous neighborhood. A Prime Minister has to be ready to stand firm while confronting a myriad of challenges, from BDS, to rockets incoming from the South and the North, to readiness for all-out war, to pressure from the EU, the UN and the US--to say nothing of social welfare and education issues Israel must deal with--and hate-filled coalition 'partners'.

The bottom line here seems to be that Israelis may well be sick of Netanyahu. But they may also still rest easy knowing he's in charge (here): "The Israeli public may be sick and tired of Netanyahu after 11 straight years in power. But there is also faith in his basic competence and a realization that the "temporary" administration he has led since Lieberman bolted his Cabinet more than a year ago has governed well" (ibid). 

Does Gantz have that competence? His willingness to flip-flop so easily doesn't earn him any credit for "competence". Is this Arab-Party issue just one more example of Gantz as "weak"--just as Netanyahu has claimed (here)? More important for tomorrow's election, will such a criticism be enough to knock the wheels off Gantz's bid to lead Israel? Is it enough to get Netanyahu re-elected?

Stay tuned. Tomorrow, Monday, March 2, 2020 is election day. If you live in Israel, go vote. This election is very, very important.