When Donald J. Trump was President of the United States, Israel knew how the US felt about Iran. The US stood clearly against Iran.
Under President Barack Obama (Trump's immediate predecessor) the US created and signed a 2015 agreement to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. That agreement was the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The goal of the JCPOA was, according to the Obama White House, to "verifiably prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon" (here).
That didn't happen. After the agreement was signed, Iran did not stop trying to build a nuclear weapon.
When Donald Trump won the 2016 US election, he refused to support this agreement with Iran. He cancelled the US participation in the JCP0A.
He went further than that. Under Trump's direction, the US did little-to-no business with Iran. The US imposed serious sanctions against Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran had never stopped working to create a nuclear weapon. It had also never stopped threatening Israel. It never stopped developing an advanced ballistic missile system capable of carrying a nuclear weapon and powerful enough to reach Israel--and beyond.
While it had seemed to some that the Obama administration had in reality done little to stop the Iranian drive to nuclear weapons, the Trump administration clearly appeared to have done everything it could to stop that drive. The only thing Trump did not do against Iran was to initiate a full-scale military attack against it. But that threat seemed always to be on the table.
Israel took some degree of comfort from such a possibility. It took comfort from the harsh US stance towards Iran.
Under Trump, Iran's 'war teeth' seemed blunted. The pressure from Trump, especially the sanctions, seemed to work. At the very least, Iran's currency cratered. Its economy suffered.
But now that Trump no longer occupies the White House, everything Trump had done vis a vis Iran could change. His attitude towards Iran seems not to be shared by the newly inaugurated President Joseph Biden.
From the list of newly appointed--but yet to be confirmed--players Biden has chosen for his incoming administration, one might guess that Israel may have something to worry about. Some of the new players on Biden's "team" aren't new at all. They come from the Obama administration, where hostility to Israel seemed endemic.
The track-records, attitudes and ideologies of this Biden team are known. For example, Biden's CIA appointee, William Burns, and Biden's appointee to be National Security Advisor (Jack Sullivan) had both been chosen by Obama to engage in secret nuclear negotiations with Iran. These talks were done behind the backs of three Middle East allies of the US which were prime targets for an Iranian nuclear attack: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel (here). Those two Obama men led the US to a JCPOA that, according to some, created an open path for an Iranian nuclear weapon to be ready no later than 2025 (ibid).
Another Biden appointee, Wendy Sherman, has already been described as among the "architects" of the Obama JCPOA. For a time, she was one of the lead negotiators of that Plan (here). She, too, will serve Biden.
That such people return to Washington does not automatically mean that the US will cancel all of Trump's sanctions against Iran. It does not prove that Biden will attempt to re-establish the original Iran deal. But Iran has already signaled that it fully expects the US to do just that--that is, to return "unconditionally" to the original JCPOA (here).
More important for Israel was an Israeli news report dated January 16, 2021--four days before Biden was sworn in to be US President--that Israeli leaders had already been contacted by Biden administration officials about specific discussions Biden officials had already had with Iran to return to the original 2015 JCPOA (here).
For Israel, a return to that 2015 JCPOA would not be good news. It would instead be an existential threat to Israel (here, pp. 1-2, and here).
Even before January 16th, Biden had indicated his "desire to return to the accord" (ibid). Israel has good reason to believe that Iran will now step up its threats against Israel. It seems more than likely that Iran will also accelerate its push towards a nuclear weapon, something the Wall Street Journal has recently reported (here).
Many in the West, including the EU and now, apparently, a Biden administration, stand squarely with Iran on dropping sanctions against Iran. They want more cordial relations with Iran, not more hostility. They ignore Israel's objections to going down this road.
If Biden wants to warm US relations with Iran, Israel sees nothing warm about such a move. Israel sees any 'warming with Iran' as appeasement (here). Israel sees any rapprochement with Iran as no less dangerous than Neville Chamberlain's infamous 1940 appeasement of Adolf Hitler.
Israel knows how Chamberlain's attempt to appease Hitler turned out. Israel fears that appeasement with Iran in 2021 will turn out just as badly.
What can Israel do to protect itself? In truth, Israel has perhaps four options to answer this question. First, Israel can accept the Biden wish for warmer relations with Iran. It could, in other words, not object to any renewed JCPOA.
The objective here would be to avoid being ostracized from discussions. The goal here would be to join those discussions--so as to influence the final result. Would it work? (see here for a discussion of this approach).
The second option sits at the opposite end of this "option" spectrum. Israel can attack Iran--now. It could try in this way to slow down Iran's push to go nuclear.
Most observers believe that such an attack would be counter-productive for both Israel and the region. No one recommends it. I believe Israel's security experts agree with this assessment.
A third option would be for Israel to negotiate with the US--not to influence the outcome of any discussions, but to gain some breathing room from the Iran threat. That is, Israel could bite its proverbial tongue, stop objecting to a deal, and sit quietly on the sideline, hoping the US would help.
If Israel did this, would Biden's team cut Israel a break? Some think yes, it might. Others don't think so.
The fourth option would begin as above. That is,yes, Israel should avoid objecting to a renewal of the 2015 agreement with Iran. But in this fourth option, Israel should stay home and focus on the two "Iran strategies" it can control. First, it can continue preparing its own plans for handling a nuclear Iran; and, second, it can continue confronting Iran's non-nuclear plans to gain hegemony of the region through its proxies--Hezbollah, Hamas, and an assorted group of Jihadist organizations which now randomly attack targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and other Arab states in the Gulf.
The thinking here is that Israel needs to control its own destiny. It cannot depend on others. It cannot wait for others to step up.
Israel must step up for itself. Israel must defend itself actively against Iran and its proxies, no matter what the West does or decides.
There are other options. But these other options are mostly just variations of these four.
One thing is certain. What is next for Israel is that the current Middle East Jihadi war against Israel's existence will now become more aggressive. The push for war against Israel has, for the last four years, been blunted by Trump. That 'blunting' process has ended. The call to 'reign in Israel' will now get louder.
This is to say that it seems now more than likely that the nations of the world will, with Trump gone, begin to turn more aggressively against Israel. As a result, Iran will feel emboldened. It will happily join with the US, the EU, the UN and the Palestinian Authority to present Israel with a stark reality: give in to the Palestinian Authority's demands or suffer consequences which Iran will gladly support--and fund.
Few around the world will object to such a demand. Few will object to the suggestion of such consequences. No doubt they will consider such a threat to be more than fair.
That would please Iran. It would please the EU. It would certainly please the UN. It might even please many in the Biden administration.
With a non-Trump administration in Washington, Israel could experience an all-out diplomatic war against it. Indeed, such a war is Israel's Spiritual Destiny.
Our Jewish Heritage teaches us that in the days before the Final Jewish Redemption the nations of the world will join together to attack Israel. My own reading of our Jewish Heritage suggests that this coming 'war' can be a literal war, a diplomatic war--or both.
It is today altogether reasonable to believe that, at some point in the near future, the US, the EU and the United Nations could join with Iran in a full-blown diplomatic war against the Jewish State--and its Capital, Jerusalem. When that happens, you should remember that the Jewish Tanach reveals that such an attack will precede and provoke the Final Redemption of the Jewish people. What our ancient Tanach describes (in Yecheskel and in Zacharya) will now unfold in the 21st Century clearly before your eyes.
You'll see it all. It will be described for you in the daily news headlines.
Stay tuned.
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