Has Democracy run its course? Does Democracy now begin to die?

 Democracy and freedom wither around the globe. They are under assault (here). Look at the global political landscape for Democracy in 2019--the last full year for which the Freedom House NGO (Non-Government Organization) completed its latest Annual Report on World Freedom (ibid). 2019 was not a good year for Democracy. It was the 14th consecutive year in which freedoms around the world declined (ibid). 

In 2005, of 192 countries followed, only 46% were judged to be Free (here, page 16). By the end of 2019, only 42% were judged "Free" (here, page 17). 

Remember, these numbers do not reflect the worsening reality in many of the world's countries already judged to be "Not Free". Many of the freedoms still available in these countries have decreased, too.

The bottom line here is that, as time goes by, the world does not gain more freedom. As time passes, the world loses freedom--slowly but inexorably. As dictators increase pressure on their own peoples, and as Democracies wither, each country that becomes less free translates into millions of people suffering. 

This is not what Freedom is supposed to do--decrease. Its dream is to spread, not to retreat.

Worse for Democracy's health, in the last 14 years, more than half of the world's established democracies have seen their democracies deteriorate (here, page 10). The responsibility for this deterioration appears to lie with (1) how elected officials govern; (2) faltering safeguards against corruption; and (3) decreases in government transparency (ibid). In the US, some would add election integrity to this list as one other contributing factor to America's diminishing Democracy. Others disagree.

Will election integrity become the issue in America that poisons America's commitment to Democracy? It's possible.  But there are other risks that threaten America's Democracy. These include, but are not limited to, challenges for America's Freedom of Speech; gun control issues; and how DHS (Department of Homeland Security) defines and then handles the issue of "Domestic Terrorism". Any one of these challenges could become the catalyst that brings to America its greatest tests for Democracy. 

Apparently, in America, my birth country, a growing number of Americans appear to believe that Democracy may not continue. They believe the opposite: US Democracy is, they say, in danger (here). 

Most writers on this subject (the death of America's democracy) point to Trump's Presidency as the cause of this danger. They blame Trump for the loss of Democracy. Indeed, even the most recent Freedom House Report essay on the US (dated 2020) appears to suggest this. 

But Trump is no longer in office. The US now has a new President. Does this mean there's a new day in America?

That is, does President Biden bring hope for strengthening Democracy in America?  According to a CBSnews poll taken one week before Biden's inauguration, the answer may be, no--Biden's arrival at the White House won't change anything;  even with the prospect of a new President, 71% of poll respondents still viewed America's Democracy as "threatened" (here).

It's no different in Israel, my new home country. Here, too, Democracy is at risk (here). Most who feel this way in Israel blame this increased risk on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom many see as corrupt--and a danger to Israel's Democracy. 

But the feeling that freedom is at risk in Israel goes beyond Benjamin Netanyahu (who, by the way, still gets the most 'votes'  for Prime Minister in current pre-election polls [please note: Israel's next election is March 23, 2021]. Netanyahu may be regularly demonized as a corrupt criminal, but voters still view him as Israel's best prospect for Prime Minister in the next election.

Nevertheless, according to a recent (January, 2021) poll, 57% Israeli respondents to a poll agree that Israel's democracy is not just "in danger". It's "in grave danger" (here). Israel, it seems, is no different than other Western Democracies. Its freedoms are at risk.

For Israel, the greatest risk to Democracy may not be election integrity. In Israel's an election's integrity seems sound. 

Instead, the greatest risk to Israel's Democracy appears to be how Israel's Supreme Court and its police behave. Public trust in both have plummeted to dangerous lows--42% for the Supreme Court and 41% for police (here). Such a low level of trust could endanger our Jewish State. With little-to-no-faith in the police or the Supreme Court, will people start taking the law into their own hands? Perhaps this is why Democracy in Israel is considered to be "in danger" (ibid).

America and Israel are not alone. Across the globe, democracies become destabilized. Destabilization threatens the US and Israel. But it also threatens much of Europe, where covid-19, Brexit, migration as well a host of economic and currency issues seem to tear at the survivability of the entire Union concept (here).

In Eastern and Central Europe, Democracy is said to be "at risk" (here). In Western Europe, 13 countries echo that sentiment. They speak of being "concerned" about Democracy (here). 

Western Man believes in Democracy. But Western Man now worries. Is Democracy at risk of failing? Has it run its course? Can Western Man keep his Democracy alive? 

If you pay attention to the daily news reports you see, you might see what lies ahead for you. You may be able to answer the question--does Democracy begin to die?

Iran, Israel and the Jewish Final Redemption

When Donald J. Trump was President of the United States, Israel knew how the US felt about Iran. The US stood clearly against Iran. 

Under President Barack Obama (Trump's immediate predecessor) the US created and signed a 2015 agreement to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. That agreement was the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The goal of the JCPOA was, according to the Obama White House, to "verifiably prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon" (here).

That didn't happen. After the agreement was signed, Iran did not stop trying to build a nuclear weapon. 

When Donald Trump won the 2016 US election, he refused to support this agreement with Iran. He cancelled the US participation in the JCP0A. 

He went further than that. Under Trump's direction, the US did little-to-no business with Iran. The US imposed serious sanctions against Iran. 

Meanwhile, Iran had never stopped working to create a nuclear weapon. It had also never stopped threatening Israel. It never stopped developing an advanced ballistic missile system capable of carrying a nuclear weapon and powerful enough to reach Israel--and beyond. 

While it had seemed to some that the Obama administration had in reality done little to stop the Iranian drive to nuclear weapons, the Trump administration clearly appeared to have done everything it could to stop that drive. The only thing Trump did not do against Iran was to initiate a full-scale military attack against it. But that threat seemed always to be on the table. 

Israel took some degree of comfort from such a possibility. It took comfort from the harsh US stance towards Iran. 

Under Trump, Iran's 'war teeth' seemed blunted. The pressure from Trump, especially the sanctions, seemed to work. At the very least, Iran's currency cratered. Its economy suffered.

But now that Trump no longer occupies the White House, everything Trump had done vis a vis Iran could change. His attitude towards Iran seems not to be shared by the newly inaugurated President Joseph Biden. 

From the list of newly appointed--but yet to be confirmed--players Biden has chosen for his incoming administration, one might guess that Israel may have something to worry about.  Some of the new players on Biden's "team" aren't new at all. They come from the Obama administration, where hostility to Israel seemed endemic. 

The track-records, attitudes and ideologies of this Biden team are known. For example, Biden's CIA appointee, William Burns, and  Biden's appointee to be National Security Advisor (Jack Sullivan) had both been chosen by Obama to engage in secret nuclear negotiations with Iran. These talks were done behind the backs of three Middle East allies of the US which were prime targets for an Iranian nuclear attack: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel (here). Those two Obama men led the US to a JCPOA that, according to some, created an open path for an Iranian nuclear weapon to be ready no later than 2025 (ibid).

Another Biden appointee, Wendy Sherman, has already been described as among the "architects" of the Obama JCPOA. For a time, she was one of the lead negotiators of that Plan (here). She, too, will serve Biden.

That such people return to Washington does not automatically mean that the US will cancel all of Trump's sanctions against Iran. It does not prove that Biden will attempt to re-establish the original Iran deal. But Iran has already signaled that it fully expects the US to do just that--that is, to return "unconditionally" to the original JCPOA (here). 

More important for Israel was an Israeli news report dated January 16, 2021--four days before Biden was sworn in to be US President--that Israeli leaders had already been contacted by Biden administration officials about specific discussions Biden officials had already had with Iran to return to the original 2015 JCPOA (here). 

For Israel, a return to that 2015 JCPOA would not be good news. It would instead be an existential threat to Israel (here, pp. 1-2, and here).

Even before January 16th, Biden had indicated his "desire to return to the accord" (ibid). Israel has good reason to believe that Iran will now step up its threats against Israel. It seems more than likely that Iran will also accelerate its push towards a nuclear weapon, something the Wall Street Journal has recently reported (here). 

Many in the West, including the EU and now, apparently, a Biden administration, stand squarely with Iran on dropping sanctions against Iran. They want more cordial relations with Iran, not more hostility. They ignore Israel's objections to going down this road. 

If Biden wants to warm US relations with Iran, Israel sees nothing warm about such a move. Israel sees any 'warming with Iran' as appeasement (here). Israel sees any rapprochement with Iran as no less dangerous than Neville Chamberlain's infamous 1940 appeasement of Adolf Hitler. 

Israel knows how Chamberlain's attempt to appease Hitler turned out. Israel fears that appeasement with Iran in 2021 will turn out just as badly.

What can Israel do to protect itself? In truth, Israel has perhaps four options to answer this question. First, Israel can accept the Biden wish for warmer relations with Iran. It could, in other words, not object to any renewed JCPOA. 

The objective here would be to avoid being ostracized from discussions. The goal here would be to join those discussions--so as to influence the final result. Would it work? (see here for a discussion of this approach). 

The second option sits at the opposite end of this "option" spectrum. Israel can attack Iran--now. It could try in this way to slow down Iran's push to go nuclear. 

Most observers believe that such an attack would be counter-productive for both Israel and the region. No one recommends it. I believe Israel's security experts agree with this assessment.

A third option would be for Israel to negotiate with the US--not to influence the outcome of any discussions, but to gain some breathing room from the Iran threat. That is, Israel could bite its proverbial tongue, stop objecting to a deal, and sit quietly on the sideline, hoping the US would help. 

If Israel did this, would Biden's team cut Israel a break? Some think yes, it might. Others don't think so. 

The fourth option would begin as above. That is,yes, Israel should avoid objecting to a renewal of the 2015 agreement with Iran. But in this fourth option, Israel should stay home and focus on the two "Iran strategies" it can control. First, it can continue preparing its own plans for handling a nuclear Iran; and, second, it can continue confronting Iran's non-nuclear plans to gain hegemony of the region through its proxies--Hezbollah, Hamas, and an assorted group of Jihadist organizations which now randomly attack targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and other Arab states in the Gulf. 

The thinking here is that Israel needs to control its own destiny. It cannot depend on others. It cannot wait for others to step up. 

Israel must step up for itself. Israel must defend itself actively against Iran and its proxies, no matter what the West does or decides.

There are other options. But these other options are mostly just variations of these four.  

One thing is certain. What is next for Israel is that the current Middle East Jihadi war against Israel's existence will now become more aggressive. The push for war against Israel has, for the last four years, been blunted by Trump. That 'blunting' process has ended. The call to 'reign in Israel' will now get louder.  

This is to say that it seems now more than likely that the nations of the world will, with Trump gone, begin to turn more aggressively against Israel. As a result, Iran will feel emboldened. It will happily join with the US, the EU, the UN and the Palestinian Authority to present Israel with a stark reality: give in to the Palestinian Authority's demands or suffer consequences which Iran will gladly support--and fund. 

Few around the world will object to such a demand. Few will object to the suggestion of such consequences. No doubt they will consider such a threat to be more than fair.

That would please Iran. It would please the EU. It would certainly please the UN. It might even please many in the Biden administration.

With a non-Trump administration in Washington, Israel could experience an all-out diplomatic war against it. Indeed, such a war is Israel's Spiritual Destiny. 

Our Jewish Heritage teaches us that in the days before the Final Jewish Redemption the nations of the world will join together to attack Israel. My own reading of our Jewish Heritage suggests that this coming 'war' can be a literal war, a diplomatic war--or both.  

It is today altogether reasonable to believe that, at some point in the near future, the US, the EU and the United Nations could join with Iran in a full-blown diplomatic war against the Jewish State--and its Capital, Jerusalem. When that happens, you should remember that the Jewish Tanach reveals that such an attack will precede and provoke the Final Redemption of the Jewish people. What our ancient Tanach describes (in Yecheskel and in Zacharya) will now unfold in the 21st Century clearly before your eyes. 

You'll see it all. It will be described for you in the daily news headlines. 

Stay tuned. 

Do Israeli politicians imitate America?

 

My wife and I made aliyah to Israel in 2010. At that time, I knew nothing about Israeli politics. But I quickly learned this: when it came to politics, lsrael was no USA.

Looking at both USA national politics and Israel's national politics in 2010 was like looking at water and oil. They had little in common. Yes, in 2010, America might have been politically stressed. But it was still the most rational of places. By contrast, Israel looked like a Middle Eastern version of a 19th century American Wild West  village. 

Actually, back in 2010, the only difference between Israeli politicians and America's Wild West was that in Israel, politicians didn't go around shooting off  pistols. In Israel, they went around shooting off their mouths.

Intelligence? Forget it. Common sense? Nope. But there was lots of noise, ideological slogans--and plenty of nonsense.

At least, that's what I remember as my first impressions. It's how Israel looked to me back then.

Now, it's 2021. I haven't changed my mind about Israeli politics. It's still slap-happy and mad. What has changed for me is my view of America's politics. 

American politics no longer looks rational to me. America's politics look like Israel. Now, both US and Israeli politicians appear to belong in a 19th century American Wild West village.    

The one thing that seems certain to me about US and Israeli politics these days is how similarly crazy Israel and the USA have both become. It's as if both now travel down the same crazy road to an insane destination.

I'm not sure either country will be happy getting to that destination. But both surely seem obsessed with rushing there. Why?

Look at how both countries behave. In America, President Trump is called a threat to democracy. In Israel, Netanyahu is called a threat to democracy.

In America, politicians have said the only way to protect America's democracy was to remove Trump from office. In Israel, politicians say the only way to protect Israel's democracy is to remove Netanyahu from office. 

In America, politicians have tried to remove Trump through a process called, impeachment--something Israel doesn't have. America hasn't impeached Trump just once. It has now impeached Trump for a historic 2nd time, only days before he leaves office anyway on January 20, 2021. Why?

In Israel, politicians try to do the same thing. They try to remove Netanyahu from office through the only means they can think of--through a criminal trial. The only way Israel can get rid of Netanyahu outside the ballot box is to find him guilty of crimes. So Israeli prosecutors have indicted him for crimes. His trial was supposed to have begun earlier this week, but was delayed by a national Corona lockdown. His trial has been rescheduled to February. 

If he is found innocent, he'll stay in office. If he is found guilty, he will be forced from office. You might call this Israel's version of impeachment.

In America, politicians have said that Trump wanted to be  King. That is, Trump was running his Presidency only to satisfy his own personal desires (read the impeachment statement by Adam Schiff). American politicians have suggested Trump cared only for himself, not America.

In Israel, politicians say Netanyahu rules only to satisfy his own personal needs. They say he doesn't care for Israel, only himself.

In America, politicians have said Trump lies repeatedly. In Israel, politicians say Netanyahu is a "compulsive liar".

In America, there have been a series of Black Flag (Antifa) protests during Trump's last year in office. In Israel, Leftist Israelis carry Blag Flags while protesting almost nightly against Netanyahu.

In America, Trump spoke to a pro-Trump gathering on January 6, 2021. Within an hour, protesters approached Capital Hill and stormed through barricades protecting the US House of Representatives. Members of the House had to be rushed to safety.

In Israel, we have seen something similar--not once, but twice in a row, on both January 8 and January 9, 2021, just days after the Capital Hill event in America on January 6th, above. Leftists protesting against Netanyahu stood outside Israel's official residence of the Prime Minister. They chanted against him. Then, they broke through barricades set up to protect the residence. Netanyahu and his wife had to be rushed to a "safe room". Twice.

Are Israeli politicians so dimwitted that they must imitate every bad thing they see in America? 

Put another way, politics in America seems driven by hate and vengeance. Must Israelis behave the same way?

Where's our intelligence? Where's our common sense? Don't politicians ever think about consequences?

Where is America headed: peace, civil war--or tyranny?

(Last update:: January 8, 2021)

By January, 1861, after decades of public and private debate--some of it polite, some of it downright vicious--America stood on the verge of civil war. The country was breaking apart. That break was slicing the nation along one, singularly sharp ideological line: slavery. 

The South lived by slavery. It's economy was built upon slavery. Its culture demanded slavery. The South couldn't live without slavery.

By contrast, the North was industrialized. Compared to the agrarian South, the North was modern. The North didn't need slavery to survive. While many in the South advocated to extend slavery, many in the North wanted slavery abolished.

Therefore, by January 1861, virtually every American pretty much knew where this divide was heading. Passions ran too high. Sooner or later, there would be war. Likely sooner.

Weeks later, on April 12, 1861, Southern soldiers attacked a Federal Fort near Charleston, South Carolina. That Fort, we know,  was called Fort Sumter. 

That attack didn't last long.  But it represented a Southern military attack against Northern troops. It was the attack that marked the beginning of the bloodiest war America has ever fought on American soil. It was also, by far, the bloodiest war the US has ever fought--anywhere. 

That war tore America apart. It was a war fought by American against American, neighbor against neighbor, family against family--and, too often, brother against brother.

That war ended 156 years ago. Nevertheless, some in America will tell you that the wounds of that war have yet to heal.

Now, during another January nearly 160 years after the Fort Sumter attack, America faces another divisive confrontation. Look at these American headlines for January 7, 2021:

-" Chaos erupts as pro-Trump mob storms the Capital"

"Insurrection fueled by conspiracy groups, extremists and fringe movements"

-"Biden to Trump: 'Demand an end to this siege' "

-"U.S. Capitol Descends into Chaos on Day of Electoral College Certification"

-"CBS: Some Cabinet Members Discussing 25th Amendment to Remove Donald Trump as President"

-"Republican Vermont Governor Demands President Donald Trump’s Resignation"

--"This is not what a constitutional republic looks like"

-"Guns drawn in House Chamber"

 Guns, a mob, insurrection, chaos, siege: when have Americans ever seen such words used to describe US citizens inside the nation's capital city--and inside the House of Representatives main Chamber?  Never, so far as I can tell.

No American alive today has ever seen a mob such as this breach the doors of the nation's Capital building--and, according to some,  "ransack" the House Chamber. The pictures that America--and the world--have seen over the last 24 hours are more than disturbing.

In Israel, where I live, there is shock over these images (here). The pictures of riots in America's capital stuns us. 

Is there anyone not surprised by this shock? After all, America is  supposed to be the "shining city on the hill". It is supposed to be the 'Beacon of Light, Freedom and Democracy" to the entire world. Chaos in the streets isn't supposed to happen in that shining city. Chaos is what happens in third world countries, not America.

The screen and photo images we saw today--and yesterday--suggest to some the coming of a civil war. Will this really happen to America? Does America now appear once again to fracture along a singular ideological line, as in 1861?

If that happens, the fracturing line this time won't be slavery. It'll be a Presidential election--and the sharp ideological divide behind that election: Progressive versus Conservative. But this fracturing isn't just about simple politics. It's about political thievery. 

It's a divide that pits Conservative Americans who believe that one national political Party deliberately stole the November 3, 2020 national election, against Progressive Americans who believe such an allegation is a baseless lie. 

How much damage will this fracture do? No one knows.

It could go nowhere. It could evaporate overnight. Or, it could fester. Will it tear America apart?

Certainly, at least in the near term, America won't sit still. It will surely play a political blame game. 

Scapegoats will be sought. Scapegoats will be found. Scapegoats will be demonized. They will be attacked.  

Such a game will solve nothing. It will deliver no peace--only anger and the desire for a future revenge.

The question is, where will America go from here? Will it settle its differences peacefully? Or, will Progressive Democrat turn against Republican Conservative? Will neighbor turn against neighbor, brother against brother, parent against child?

Riots in America's cities this past summer. Drawn guns in the House Chamber this winter. This isn't good. 

America's democracy is stressed by this violence. Democracy in America is fragile right now. It's under pressure. 

There could be civil turmoil. There could be civil war. There could be tyranny in America's future, not equality or free speech. 

Beware, America. Your survival as "the land of the free and the home of the brave" is on the line here, in early 2021. Do you understand this?