Israel Independence Day, 2020

Today, April 29, 2020, is also the 5th day of the Hebrew month, Iyar. This is the Hebrew date which Israel takes to celebrate its modern-day re-establishment. Today, Israel is 72 years old.

I have a video for you about that time in the 1940's when Israel became a 'nation'. Please take a look:

As you have just seen, the struggle to create this modern Jewish nation during those years in the 1940's was not easy. Few gave Israel any chance at all of success. Certainly, on paper, in 1947-48, the Jews who fought for Israel looked like losers.

Perhaps it's true what some whispered about Israel back then: some whispered, give the Jews their state. Give it to them. They'll never succeed. Let all those Jews from the Holocaust--Europe's unwanted--go there. It's a good place for them because, in the end, they'll all perish. 

Let them perish, these whisperers said. Perhaps this 'gift' will be what's needed to finish them off for good.

So as you've just seen, the UN voted on November 29, 1947. Arab nations in the UN General Assembly staged a walk-out in protest (here). 

The day after the November 29th vote, Arabs in Israel attacked Jews, killing several. A civil war in Israel between Arab and Jew broke out, initiated by Arabs. 

According to the UN plan, the British Mandate was to end on May 15, 1948. It did, and on May 15, 1948, when Israel officially declared its statehood, open hostilities began between surrounding Arab nations and Israel. Immediately, war erupted on May 15th as Egyptian airplanes bombed Tel Aviv (here). Also, Arab nations around Israel attacked. 

The new state was outgunned, out-equipped, out-trained and out-manned. America and Britain imposed an embargo-blockade against Israel, to interdict all shipping into Israel. We truly seemed destined to be wiped out.

But HaShem, the G-d of Israel and the Shield of David and Avraham, would not have it. He made miracles for us--every day. The Jewish national homeland was reconstituted.

This is why we celebrate this day. Happy Independence Day.

David Gordon z"l, we remember you

Today is Israel's Memorial Day. It is the Day all of Israel remembers soldiers who have lost their lives while in service to their country, Israel. To paraphrase something former US President Abraham Lincoln once said, these fallen are men and women who have given 'their last full measure of devotion' to their country. This is also the Day we remember Israeli civilians who have been murdered in terror attacks against Jews. 

This is "a day of collective and personal anguish mingled with honor for the fallen" (here). That is exactly what this day is--for so many families.

The number of Israeli soldiers who have died while in service since the founding of Israel now stands at 23,816. For Israel, this is not a small number. We all know such soldiers.

Since last memorial Day,75 soldiers have been killed, mostly from Palestinian terror attacks.In addition, three additional civilians this past year were murdered in terror attacks. The total of Israel's civilian terror victims has now risen to 3,153 (ibid), in addition to the 23,816 soldiers killed.

When my family and I first made aliyah in 2010, a neighbor told us that, in Israel, almost all Israeli families personally know of someone who has been killed in action or murdered by terror. This is a small country--very small. Such death is felt by all. It is keenly felt.

Our own, new-aliyah family also feels such pain. You see, in August, 2014, while the Hamas-Israel war still raged, an IDF 'lone soldier' (a soldier who serves in the IDF with no immediate family in Israel) by the name of Corporal David Menachem Gordon died (here). His death was--and for some, still is--a mystery. We miss him. We remember him. 

We go to his grave site. We visit him at least once a year at Israel's National memorial cemetery, Har Herzl. 

We didn't visit him this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. Virtually no one went to any National Memorial cemetery this year. There's a lockdown of all Memorial cemeteries, to keep people from 'mingling'. Very few of the bereaved families were allowed to visit their loved ones today (here). The lockdown just added to the pain one feels.

David was a family friend back in the USA before we made aliyah. At that time, he was in our city to go to our neighborhood Jewish Day school. He lived with relatives just down the street from us. That's how we got to know him.

He was in the same grade as one of my daughters. After both we and he had made aliyah, David kept in touch with that daughter, as young people often do after making aliyah.

We believe our family may have been the last 'old country' friends who saw him just before he died. We spent a Shabbat meal together, hosted by a neighbor here in Israel. 

We were very impressed by the David we saw. He had changed during his Army service. We could see that change. He was more mature. He was more self-confident. 

He had served in combat in Gaza just weeks before. I seem to remember that all he'd say about combat was that his combat had to do with 'sniping'. I remember someone at that Shabbat meal asking David if he--David--could talk about what he'd learned from his combat experience. His response was telling. Very telling.

First, he paused. He became thoughtful. You could see that thoughtfulness in his face--relaxed, looking inward. Then he said, 'you know, when you go into combat for the first time, you just don't know how you're going to react. You never know how you'll perform.' He paused again. Someone asked, 'and what did you learn?'

He responded, 'I learned that I'm a warrior".  

Several days later, we were informed he was dead. We were shocked. We were horrified. He had survived combat. Now he was dead? We couldn't understand.

We learned that David hadn't died in combat. The IDF had investigated. But even today, we're not entirely sure what were the results of that investigation. 

For us, who knew David, his death is still a shock. We still mourn for him him. We still remember him. 

Personally, I remember what David told us at that Shabbat meal. I also remember what his commanding officer said of him at the gravesite service for him at Har Herzl: during training, David was always challenging his officers. David was never satisfied with the training. He wanted more. When he got more, he still wanted more--and David's combat experience showed it. He was an excellent soldier. 

David, I will never forget you. After the funeral, I remember telling someone that David was a warrior, is a warrior and will forever be a warrior. I haven't changed my mind about that. I never will.

He came to Israel. He stood up for Israel. He went to war for Israel. Now he's gone.

David, may your neshama (soul) find rest and peace. May the Creator Himself comfort you.

So, what did Friday's eerie silence bring us?

On Friday, April 24, 2020, I wrote here (below) of an eerie silence having descended upon our neighborhood and city. It seemed a strange silence. Did it bring us anything?

Yes, it did. But not what we'd expected.

Now, it's Sunday, April 26, 2020. The silence has lifted.  

That silence didn't bring rain or thunder, lightening or storm. Instead, it brought  an almost-choking fog of sand.

A desert sandstorm. 

We do get sandstorms here. We are, after all, in the desert. Such storm aren't exactly pleasant, especially if you have respiratory difficulty. But they're not customarily--so far as I can remember--preceded by such an eerie silence.

Here's how a sandstorm surrounds us. It looks (to me,  at least)  like a thick, white cloud,  perhaps even a fog. Often, when we first see such a storm, one can't determine if it's fog, rain or sand. It just descends upon us and blocks out everything.

For example, from our house, we can look beyond our backyard and see Jerusalem, about 4 miles from us. Normally, we can see Jerusalem's buildings clearly. But not Friday. On Friday past, all we could see was a white fog-like cloud. The world on the other side of that cloud was completely blotted out.

Going to the front of our house, looking out from our front porch, we can  often see Amman, Jordan, some 50 miles away. Yes, we can see that far. But only on a clear day. 

The best time to see Amman is at sunrise because at that time of day the sun, rising to our East, comes up above the horizon from the other side of Amman. The sun shines brightly from behind buildings there. Of course, those buildings are far away. But with the sun behind them, we can  see their silhouette. Most especially, we can see one single structure--a twin tower reaching to the sky, silhouetted in the bright sun. 

But on Friday past, we could see nothing. There was only a white, fog-like cloud hanging everywhere from the sky, covering everything in sight. 

Actually, the white cloud was much closer than Amman. It just wasn't so close as to blot out the next neighborhood over from us, some 800-1,000 yards away. The buildings of that neighborhood were still visible--but only barely. The 'fog' hung about the buildings, seeming to wait until it--the fog--would ultimately consume them.

But then, it got dark. We couldn't tell if the dust fog had succeeded in gobbling up those buildings.

We were, as they say, 'socked in'. By the time Shabbat began, the air outside felt dry. The air felt thick with dust--very thick. 

We closed doors and windows. We remained indoors (because of the coronavirus pandemic, people our age are still being cautioned here to avoid crowds, which includes shul--synagogue--so as Shabbat began, we stayed away from shul and davened--prayed--at home by ourselves).

Overnight Friday, we had rain. Nothing severe. When Shabbat dawned, the air was clear--and free of dust. The sky was 'Partly Cloudy'. The air outside felt cool, almost cold--which here in the desert means probably a temperature in the 60s. During the day, it rained lightly 4 times between 6 am and 1 pm, then stopped. 

Altogether, that eerie silence of the day before turned out to be nothing to concern us. By Shabbat morning, the birds had returned. Their songs filled the air. Everything returned to normal. 

An erie stillness

At 4 pm Friday afternoon, April 24, 2020, my wife came to me to draw my attention to the outdoors. I'd been working at my computer, oblivious to my surroundings. 

What she pointed out was unusual. I stopped working. She was right. Something was up. But what?

Outdoors, there was heavy cloud cover all around us. Nothing particularly unusual about that. This week still is, basically,  just two weeks after winter had officially ended--still a time for the occasional rain to show up. But what was unusual today was how still the air was. 

Outside, it wasn't hot or humid. It was just that the air was so still. That seemed unusual.

It was eerily quiet. We live in the desert. But because we live in a city of some 48,000, we don't often experience a typical desert silence. In Israel, we are in a mid-size city. We live in neighborhoods seemingly alive with sounds--of people, cars, buses, trucks--and birds. It's quiet here.But not this silent.

Despite the fact that we are literally surrounded by a broad, dry, sandy desert, our city has been built almost to 'oasis standards'. Our city fathers have for years planted masses of flower-beds each year all around the  city. They've also planted hundreds, if not thousands, of trees. Our city becomes quite beautiful this time of year. 

Naturally, all of the flora around us attracts birds and insects. Lots of them--a good thing for a desert environment. 

We see lots of birds, especially in those older neighborhoods like mine, where green growth is taller and more mature. With so much green, we commonly see lots of birds--and hear their songs, many of them unusual (to us). We love listening to them.

But not this afternoon. Now, as I type again at my computer, there is complete silence. It's eerie. There are no birds singing---nothing.

Back in the USA, such a stillness on a very cloudy day would suggest a heavy storm on the way. But here, in the desert of Israel? I don't remember such stillness.

We've had heavy rainstorms here before. I just don't remember such silence before those storms.  Does this silence now portend anything? 

We wait.

Shabbat shalom.

Does Benny Gantz lead--or fail?

(Last update: April 22, 2020)

 This essay is now a re-write.

It's been seven weeks since Israel's most recent national election. Now, as of mid-afternoon on April 20, 2020, in the middle of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic crisis, Israel still must fight that pandemic without an agreed-upon government in place.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Israel’s President had chosen Benny Gantz to form a government with opponent Benjamin Netanyahu because he (the President) had felt that Gantz had the best chance to form a new government, not Netanyahu. But Gantz hasn’t succeeded. He struggles. He hasn’t shown that he can work together with Netanyahu.

That's the sticking point. Gantz can't get an agreement. He flirts with failure, not a new government.

Gantz has failed. He promised success. But by 6 pm today, April 20, 2020, we still have no new PM. 

After weeks of 'negotiations', unity talks have succeeded only in creating a kind of dizzying quintuple-turn; that is, these 'talks' haven't led to a formal decision of any kind; they've led instead to (at least) five surprises.

The first surprise wasn't much of a surprise at all. That was when, on April 11, 2020, Gantz officially declared that his attempt to create a ‘unity government’ had stalled. This was his first failure. After all his promises to the contrary, he simply couldn't do what he'd promised. He couldn't negotiate an agreement with Netanyahu.

Many in Israel weren’t surprised by this failure. Over weeks of negotiations, the talks, if you remember, were constantly rumored to be tipping towards failure, not success. In the end, that’s exactly what happened--failure.

Failed, Gantz did two things. First, he acknowledged he’d failed. But he also, second, requested a 14-day extension from Israel's President, Reuven Rivlin (here). The only way Gantz could continue his effort to form a coalition government was with the President’s permission.

 But this was when Israel got its second surprise. This surprise was nothing short of startling.

At that point, President Rivlin had several options regarding how to proceed. But the most obvious choice for him was the customary choice. That is, when the first man (here, Gantz) fails to form a government after an election, the President would typically choose that man’s major opponent to try his hand at forming a government. In this particular case, Gantz's opponent (Netanyahu) would start his own quest for success only 3 seats short of his goal. 

Choosing Netanyahu seemed the logical choice. It seemed the right choice. Why not give to Netanyahu the opportunity to find those 3 seats? Netanyahu had certainly done it before.  Why not now?

This is when the second surprise hit: Rivlin didn't give Netanyahu a chance to do anything. Instead, Rivlin gave this 'chance' back to the Knesset. He told the Knesset, essentially, 'you figure this out'.

This wasn’t just an unexpected turn. It was a startling shock.

As soon as Rivlin made this decision, Netanyahu had his own surprise for Israel. This was surprise number three. 

The surprise was, even as members of Netanyahu's own Likud were "poised" to oppose that extension request (ibid),  Netanyahu surprised everyone . He invited Gantz not to stop talking (ibid). 

Nobody expected that to occur. The conventional wisdom was, Gantz was finished; let someone else try.  With that invitation, Gantz stayed in the talks. 

Now, it’s April 20^th. Talks appear to have stalled yet again. Now, we witness our fourth--and fifth--surprises.

The introduction to surprise number four was, Gantz was reported on April 20th to have 'stormed out' of negotiations with Netanyahu, apparently fed up with frustration (here). This doesn’t speak well of a man who’d been specifically tasked by the President to form a unity government with Netanyahu. Nevertheless, this ‘storming’ out’ story didn’t surprise anyone because over the preceding week we’d learned that Gantz seemed much better at threatening Netanyahu than negotiating with him. 

These threats coming during a 'unity negotiation' were troubling. They didn't promise a 'unity' outcome. But they did make sense.

Remember, Gantz had spent a career in the military. Negotiating is not how a military works. As Israel's most recent top military man, Gantz understood how to order--and, perhaps, bully--those around him. He wasn't accustomed to negotiating anything with anybody. Certainly now, as a civilian, he lacked the power to command a decision from Netanyahu. It seemed to make sense that such a man could indeed storm out of a meeting in frustration.

To be fair, we don't know if this report of his having 'stormed out' of talks was fake news or not. But then, it didn't matter because once Gantz left that meeting, he was the one to give us our fourth surprise: he was reported to be going from talks of “unity” with Netanyahu straight to the Knesset to start legislation to outlaw Netanyahu from government service (ibid). That would lock Netanyahu out from running again for office, particularly while he was under indictment--and soon to be at trial. Such legislation, with Netanyahu out of the way, would also give Gantz his Premiership on a silver platter. 

Such a move was as far from 'unity' as one could get. Yet,  this was the exact moment when Israel got perhaps the biggest surprise of all, surprise number five.  As Gantz headed to the Knesset to destroy Netanyahu by passing special anti-Netanyahu legislation, two earstwhile Gantz allies announced they would not support such legislation (here). First, Moshe Ya'alon said it. Then, even more damaging for Gantz was what Leftist MK Yair Golan (ibid) told the media: he was quoted as saying that  the Left would only support this anti-Netanyahu legislation if Gantz immediately resigned from Speaker of the Knesset and handed that job over to someone more experienced in guiding legislation through the Knesset (ibid).

This last announcement wasn't just startling. It was a stunning rebuke of Gantz's competence.

Ya'alon's and Golan's unexpected rejection of Gantz was another failure for Gantz—his biggest failure yet because it ended his ace-in-the-hole: he’d threatened multiple times that if Netanyahu didn’t surrender to what Gantz wanted from these talks, Gantz would go to the Knesset and secure his anti-Netanyahu law.

Now, MK Golan had turned that threat to dust. Without the Left’s support, and without Ya'alon's support, Gantz was finished. His anti-Netanyahu legislation wouldn’t have the support it needed to pass. 

Gantz suddenly looked like a loser--with an ill-serving temper to boot. Even his friends and allies were turning on him.

Gantz had gone from being the darling of the Knesset to complete loser. Would anyone in the Knesset support him? 

This seemed a good question. In fact, this question may have been the reason Gantz went immediately back to talks with Netanyahu (just a couple of hours after this rebuke). Did he return to talks with his tail tucked protectively between his legs? Nobody said.

This public humiliation seemed almost embarrassing. What was supposed to be Gantz’s moment to show himself to be a man of true PM timbre became instead the moment when he appeared to be nothing more than a 'would-be emperor who had no clothes’--meaning that the great military General had, in the end, nothing to give Israel except failure.

The unity talks aren’t over. There's still hope. But so far, Gantz doesn't show how he leads. He shows how he fails.

This is not a good sign.

UPDATE: At app 7:38 pm tonight, (8 minutes ago) April 20, 2020, there appears to be a unity government.  Does this mean Gantz had finally won--or is this just the first step to his next failure?

Stay tuned.

Coronavirus pandemic: across the world, in the US, the EU--and Israel

The pandemic called, "the novel coronavirus" (here), has, quite literally,  spread around the world like a wildfire. If you have the ability to turn on a computer, watch TV or listen to a radio, you may know that officials throughout the entire populated world have reported cases. This expression, "Entire populated world", refers to more than 200 countries, territories and 'entities' (see here under the heading, "view by country". 

This is why this disease is called a "pandemic". It has, as the word 'pandemic' suggests, found victims to strike all across the world--in a relatively short period of time. 

According to 'best' data available (as of April 10, 2020, 6:59 GMT), some 1.6 million people worldwide have been 'officially' infected (here). We don't know how many other cases have gone unreported or under-reported. Even at 1.6 million, the numbers and the speed of the infections are staggering.

Of the 1.6 million victims, some 95,000+ have died (ibid). If you're counting, that's an 'official' 5.96% death rate. This is to say that app 6% of officially diagnosed cases end in death--not a small number--and the real toll, when the true dead are actually counted, could be much higher.

This death rate (app 6% of those infected) is frightening. What makes this number frightening is that the current number of cases and deaths depend upon official numbers. That is to say, if a country's official's don't release accurate numbers, the total impact of the true death rate may never be known.

China, where this disease is said to have originated, is the perfect case in point. Many in the US have stated that the corona numbers coming out of China are--and have been--fake (here). The same may be true for Iran, Russia, Indonesia and North Korea (ibid). Some even suspect that Egypt and Saudi Arabia might be "downplaying" their own national coronavirus numbers (ibid).

For China, the real number of dead from the virus might exceed 40,000 (here and here), not the app. 3,300 China has declared. If 40,000+ dead in China is an accurate  estimate, then China's reported numbers are completely false (here, under 'view by country'). The horrible reality of such a misrepresentation is that the number of Chinese dead could be perhaps 15X greater than reported. 

In the US, the anti-Trump mainstream media--joining with anti-Trump Democrats--don't so much focus on US falsifying virus numbers. Instead, they focus on weaponizing the virus against US President Trump (here). Case in point: in America, the CBSNews corporation has more than once shown chaotic hospital scenes, purportedly from New York City, to "illustrate" President Trump's corona pandemic failure to manage the pandemic competently. But these clearly chaotic--and horrific--scenes weren't from New York City--which, by the way, has just recently revealed that, well, actually, the oft-hyped news that 'we're out of hospital beds-we're drowning in patients-the government isn't helping us-we can't cope' stories, didn't have a shortage of beds at all. In fact, New York City had a surplus of hospital beds!

The scenes shown on CBSNews outlets across the US hadn't been filmed in New York City. They hadn't been filmed in the US. They'd been filmed in Italy, which has been overwhelmed by the virus. Italy's experience with this pandemic has been devastating. 

You can see this devastation in the deaths-per-million-population numbers. Italy's deaths-per-million are 6X greater than rate in the US (see here under 'view by country', and below). 

In fact, if you want to see exactly how Trump was handling the US corona pandemic, check out the 'view by country' section of the worldwidecorona website report. As of the April 10, 2020 6:59 GMT accounting moment, when you compare US 'deaths per million population' with European countries, the differences can appear startling. The numbers below suggest that Trump is not  incompetent or evil with his coronavirus strategy; quite the contrary. Judge for yourself:

As of those April 10th numbers, the US had app 50 deaths per million population. By contrast, Spain had 330 deaths per million population. Italy had 302, or, six times greater than the US number.

France had 187 deaths per million population. The UK had 118. Belgium had 218. Switzerland had 110. The Netherlands had 140. Sweden had 79. Ireland had 53. Luxembourg had 83.  

Yes, as of the reporting date-time listed for that corona report, other European countries did have lower deaths per million population vs the US. But then, as you've just seen above, some of Europe's most advanced countries indeed had numbers significantly higher than the US numbers.  

Therefore, has Trump really been as completely incompetent ('he has blood on his hands'!!) as the US mainstream media have proclaimed him to be? If that's the case, what does this same media say about places like Spain, France, the UK, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Sweden, etc?

In a word, nothing. The US media has ignored their numbers as if they didn't exist, as if they bore no relevance to what Trump was accomplishing.

In Israel, meanwhile, the deaths per million number stood at 10. This, compared to other advanced countries, is among the best of numbers. It says Israel's aggressive strategies against the virus were working.

Israel's PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been considered among the most proactive--and competent--of national leaders during this pandemic battle. Thank G-d, he works in Israel, not elsewhere. Thank G-d, he's done well, so far. 

No country is out of danger, at least not yet. The world has been attacked by a powerful force. In the fight against this invisible enemy, the US isn't as bad as some would claim; and Israel, thankfully, holds its own. 

The good news for all of us is, of the 1.6 million cases of coronavirus (as of April 10th) so far worldwide, app 356,986 of these cases have 'ended' successfully--that is, many infected people have been identified as "recovered" (here). That's good news, indeed.

May their numbers grow! May HaShem bring a "refuah shleima" (a "complete recovery") to all who have fallen victim to this plague. May Israel continue to be successful.

In the middle of unity talks, Gantz "threatens" Netanyahu?

In Israel, unity talks between Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu aren't going well. The two men are supposed to be talking about how to form a new coalition government, wherein both men get sufficient power to be satisfied. But by midday, April 6, 2020, Gantz--supposedly focused on creating unity with Netanyahu--seemed publicly frustrated. Instead of discussing 'unity', Gantz sent a threatening letter to Netanyahu: Gantz said he expected Netanyahu to sign a  final agreement to enter a unity government--within the hour" (here)--or else. 

Gantz explained what his 'or else" meant: if Netanyahu didn't agree to a Gantz-driven (instead of a shared) unity agreement "within the hour", Gantz would use his new power as Speaker of the Knesset to go to the Knesset to advance legislation to bar any Israeli who faces criminal indictment from forming a government. This is, of course, a new law that would immediately end Netanyahu's participation in talks for a ruling government. His career would be over because he's an Israeli who is currently under indictment. 

Under the law, Netanyahu will be barred from forming a government. That would take effect, we assume, immediately. It would then stand in place until Netanyahu's trial ends and he's found innocent. If he's found guilty, he  could go to jail--or be forced to retire permanently from politics.

Either way, Gantz wins, Netanyahu loses.

Netanyahu's trial is set to begin May 4th. It's expected not to end anytime soon. Such a law would leave Gantz to control talks on his own, with no one to share his power. In this scenario, he'd probably be crowned Prime Minister faster than you could say 'make me king'. It would certainly be one way for Gantz to solve his problem with the stubborn Netanyahu.

Naturally, Likud reacted immediately to this threat, calling it "Mafia tactics" (here). Likud also scolded Gantz with, "Benny, this is not how you create unity. This is how you incite and divide" (ibid). These seemed valid points.

This threat raises a question: would Knesset Members (MK's) whom Gantz needs in order to pass this threatened legislation actually support him? Gantz needs 61 MK's to pass a law. Will he get those 61 votes for this law? 

That support was once Gantz's for the asking. But that 'was then', when Gantz was seen by many as the new political hero who finally had gotten the best chance to defeat Netanyahu. 

Now, it's different. Gantz isn't so much the the hero any more. He's more the political traitor because he's the man who betrayed his Party's pledge never to sit in a government with the hated evil one, Netanyahu.

Now, Gantz has gone and done something he'd promised never to do--sit with Netanyahu in a government coalition. Would his former friends still befriend him? 

Plus, Gantz's Knesset numbers have changed. Once, before his betrayal (negotiating with Netanyahu) caused his Blue-White alliance to break up, Gantz had 33 Knesset votes to control--plus promises of support from another 28/29 Mks. 

But now, after the Blue-White's break-up, Gantz has only 15 seats, not 33. He could certainly get some of his former 29 supporters to support a law to dump Netanyahu. But he now needs 46 votes to pass his law (for a total of 61). Since many among those who abandoned Gantz's Party see him as a traitor, would he get those 46?  

That's an open question. No one, not even Gantz, knows the answer. Passing an anti-Netanyahu law isn't a sure thing for Gantz. He could press for a vote--and lose. That humiliation could end his political career.

By 4 pm Monday, April 6, 2020, Netanyahu may have already figured out this political calculus. He didn't frighten. He didn't give in  to the threat. He stonewalled Gantz. He signed nothing--and his bargaining position (regarding the issues of judges and sovereignty) actually hardened, something which, at least briefly, revived the Right-wing (here).

Did Gantz respond to this hardening by Netanyahu by heading straight to the Knesset to seek his anti-Netanyahu law, as he'd threatened? No, he did not. 

Did this failure to do as he threatened enhance Gantz's credibility in the Knesset? I don't think it did.

The longer these talks go on, the less competent Gantz appears. This isn't good for Gantz. It's potentially very good for Netanyahu.

How will all of this end? Stay tuned. 

Gantz-Netanyahu unity talks: the vigil has begun

Well, apparently, maybe, the waiting is over--almost. Gantz and Netanyahu are at it again; 'it' being talks to create a 'unity' coalition. Can we at last see light at the end of the tunnel? 

Yes, there is light at the end of the tunnel. But is that light the dawning of a unity coalition--or an oncoming train headed straight at us?

We can't tell.

Here's what we know. First, despite our collective hope for a unity government, a fourth election is still possible. Second, it's important to note that much of this week's political speculation has turned out to be accurate. For example, unity talks have indeed stalled. Gantz has indeed been tough--and obstinate. Gantz has indeed pushed an agenda that appears more Left than 'Centrist'. 

Then, third, Netanyahu's Right-wing bloc is indeed close to open rebellion. Netanyahu's Right-wing support in the Knesset fears that Netanyahu surrenders too much to Gantz (for example, here). If the Right-wing does in fact come to this conclusion, it could turn against Netanyahu. 

This is no empty threat. A Right-bloc rebellion could well put at risk any Knesset legislation Netanyahu seeks to pass (as he serves his share of days as PM). The Right bloc could abandon Netanyahu. This means the Right bloc could vote with Left and Center-Left Knesset Members against Netanyahu. The result of such a rebellion could be that any Knesset legislation Netanyahu seeks to pass in the Knesset won't attract enough support to pass. His ability to lead would be hamstrung.

These unity talks are at a crossroad. For Israel, 'unity' doesn't automatically means 'working together'. A poorly built 'unity' coalition could mean more political divisions, not less divisiveness. In the end, "unity" could turn into political chaos.   

If a 'unity' coalition can work together, Israel should be able to continue its so-far successful coronavirus battle (it's been ranked first in the world (here)). But if such a coalition can't work together, what happens then? Will Israel's corona success be degraded by infighting?   

We don't know.  

Today, Gantz's Blue-White Party has made an announcement. At app 2:15pm Israel time this afternoon (April 2, 2020), Blue-White declared that the end of the talks are near. This suggests, we believe, that a unity government will soon become a 'done deal' (here). But we can't be sure that that's precisely what the announcement actually meant to convey.  

Gantz has already said that, if there is no final agreement signed 'before the weekend', talks will be completely called off. Pesach (the up-coming, anticipated national Passover break) begins Wednesday night, April 8, 2020. If talks are called off by April 4th or 5th, Gantz's chance to get a unity coalition with Netanyahu might be finished. 

Remember, in Israel's complex and arcane election rule-book, Gantz faces a negotiation deadline--April 12, 2020.  April 12th is the final date for Gantz to control unity negotiations to form a ruling coalition. After April 12, Netanyahu gets his chance to control the unity talks to form a government (unless Gantz gets an extension--extensions are another of the arcane rules in Israel's election rule-book). 

If there's no extension, Netanyahu will have app 28 days to be successful (unless he's given a different time-frame: another rule). If Netanyahu isn't successful forming a ruling coalition, the only option for Israel will be a fourth election (another rule)--unless, that is, Netanyahu acts to call for 'early elections' (another rule)--which in fact may or may not happen (because of yet another rule--don't ask). 

Keep in  mind also that even if we get a unity agreement right now, all will not necessarily be well. That is, whenever a unity coalition is announced, we'll still not know from that announcement what, exactly, Gantz and Netanyahu agreed to. At that moment, we may not know all the dirty little details--where the devil lurks; or, as Israel's political insiders might say, the moment a unity announcement is made that a deal has been finalized, no one in Israel will immediately know for sure If such a deal makes Israel the winner--or the deal's biggest loser.  

Stay tuned. Surely, we'll soon find out what is that light at the end of the tunnel--salvation, or a train wreck about to happen?

Will the Gantz-Netanyahu unity talks lead to a fourth election?

In Israel's current government--formed in 2015--there are the equivalent of 29 Cabinet Ministers. There are also an additional 4 'Deputy Ministers' (count them here). This week, Israel's two most important political leaders, Blue-White Party leader Benny Gantz and the Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, sit down to negotiate how to divide up those 29 Ministerial positions--and those 4 Deputy positions. 

These negotiations are crucial. In Israel, he who controls any given Ministry controls the ideological path that Ministry takes. In practice, this means, for example, that a new Leftist Education Minister might seek to install education policies for Israel's public schools that could be far different from policies a Rightist leader might promote. The  same is true in all Ministries. Israel is that ideological.

For example, a leftist Education Minister might want Arabic taught in all of Israel's Jewish public schools, where 95%+ percent of students are Jewish, not Arab. By contrast, a  Rightist Education leader might want more Judaism in these same schools (in Israel, a public school can be purely secular or a combination of secular-religious).

A Leftist Education Minister might mandate that the vehemently anti-Israel 'Palestinian Narrative' be introduced into Israeli schools as a required course in each grade--or, alternatively, for all (or some) High School grades.  A Rightist Education Minister would probably reject such a mandate.

A Leftist Education Minister might see no reason for Zionism to be taught in public schools. A Right-wing Education Minister might want to see more Zionism taught in schools.

The same applies to Foreign Affairs. A Left-wing Foreign Affairs Minister might pursue a 'two-state solution'. A Right-wing Minister might reject such a policy direction.

A Left-wing Foreign Minister  might open direct talks with the Palestinian Authority with the intent to surrender 'land-for-peace' within the year. A Right-wing Minister might reject such talks.

A Leftist Agricultural Minister might want to use his office to empower what has so far been illegal Bedouin building in parts of Israel. A Rightist Minister might actually start enforcing anti-building laws against such building not typically enforced. 

In Israel, ideology counts. That means that the person chosen to lead a Ministry counts even more.

That's what these unity negotiations are all about. From what we have already heard, many of Gantz's proposed Ministers appear to be Leftists who seek to change Ministries to support a Leftist agenda, not the current Rightist agenda. Clearly, Israel's political Right wing object to this.

One might think that a 'unity' coalition would suggest some kind of 50-50 split between what Gantz and Netanyahu want to see in Israel's new government coalition. This would mean that Gantz's Blue-White Party members--along with some of his allies from Left and Center-Left Parties--could receive half the Ministry leadership positions. Netanyahu's Likud Party--along with some of his own allies on the political Right--could receive the other half of Ministry leadership positions. That might represent a reasonable 50-50 split--a sharing of power, right?

But a simple 50-50 split doesn't automatically create a balance between how much  power each side wields, nor does it create an acceptable ideological balance. To achieve those two goals--or get close to it--two things still need to be done. First, regarding power, negotiations need to take into account the relative power of each Ministry. That is, the more influential/powerful Ministries should themselves also be split 50-50. 

Then, to protect each side's ideology, there will need to be some special arrangement. Conventional wisdom suggests that a 'veto power' is that arrangement.

It's a tough call, such an arrangement. It means that, no matter which side--Gantz/Left or Netanyahu/Right--actually ran a particular Ministry, the other side could have some kind of veto power over new rules, or rule changes. This could, in theory at least, prohibit "unwanted" ideological rule changes. But it would also immediately freeze the currently existing ideological status quo of each Ministry. 

Yes, in this scenario, both sides would be protected. Both sides would have their ideological biases held in check. But would Gantz accept the current status quo? Would Netanyahu?

The point of all this discussion of 'power sharing' is simple: if Gantz and Netanyahu truly want 'unity', unity is, in theory, possible.  But that's not where these talks appear to be going. 

Rumors have circulated. Gantz doesn't seem interested in a 50-50 split. He isn't interested in 'sharing'. He isn't interested in giving Netanyahu what he (Gantz) perceives to be 'the upper hand'.

Specifically, it's been rumored that Gantz has asked for more than half the Ministries. There's a rumor that Netanyahu, appearing to aid Gantz in this peculiar endeavor, seems interested in adding seven new Ministries (for a total of 36) so that Likud and its Right-wing allies won't be shut out if Gantz gets more than half the Ministries. 

How might Likud and the Right be shut out? It's been rumored that Gantz wants 30 Ministries to join a unity government with Netanyahu. That would be 30 of 36 Ministries in Gantz 's hand--or, if you're counting, more than 80% of the Ministries.

Are we to believe that Gantz expects Netanyahu to agree to a 'unity' government where Gantz gets 80%+ of everything? That's not a 50-50 split. That's more like a complete surrender to Gantz's demands.

It gets worse. It's also been rumored that Gantz is angling to control the most powerful of Israel's Ministries. The rumor is, Gantz wants control of Foreign Affairs, Justice and the Defense Ministries.

Why are these rumors spreading? Are they just political fake news? Or, are they preparing voters for something else--perhaps a completely unexpected outcome?

Voters are expecting unity. What else is there?

Before these talks began there appeared to be a growing belief that Gantz was a political lightweight--inexperienced, unable to grasp (or articulate) complex issues, and in thrall to his (at the time) co-leader Yair Lapid. Now, during these talks, there's a new question dawning about Gantz: is he actually shrewder than Netanyahu--or does he simply and cleverly brandish before Netanyahu some kind of threat over Netanyahu?

The rumors of rift persist. How accurate are these rumors? We don't know. We just know that Israel's Right-wing is certainly in a panic over what might happen to its values if Gantz gets a dominating control over the next government coalition (here).

What's going on here? Why is a supposedly unity negotiation going down a road that threatens to exclude Israel's political Right, not include it? Why do unity talks appear to mean, not 'a coming together', but an unraveling? 

What kind of unity is that?

These rumors don't pass the smell test. Something isn't right--and no one is talking. The only thing anyone knows is this: at this moment (early morning, April 1, 2020), Netanyahu seems to face a potential rebellion from his allies on the Right--and an "escalating showdown" with an "intransigent Gantz" (here).

This isn't the news voters want to see. But the ugly truth is, there still lurks in the shadows the possibility of a fourth election, something voters have said they don't want.  

Is this the message of these rumors--that unity won't happen? That we're about to go to yet another election?

Stay tuned. This drama hasn't ended.