Thursday, January 30, 2020

Why Trump's 'Deal of the Century" will fail

(Last updated: February 3, 2020)


On January 27, 2020, US President Donald Trump presented a much-advertised "Peace Plan" Trump has named, 'The Deal of the Century'. It's an ambitious Plan. One indication of its ambitiousness is the curious fact that, out of all Peace Plans ever presented to solve the Arab-Israel conflict (since 1948), this is the only one to present an actual, geographical  map of how the Plan  would play out "on the ground" (here). Apparently, no other plan, not even the  most recent (2013) 'John Kerry' Plan, contained a map (ibid). 

As I understand it, this Plan would give to a new Palestinian state some 70% of the West Bank (Judea-Samaria), mostly involving what is currently called 'Areas A and B', which are already under Palestinian control (ibid). This new map seems designed to disrupt current Israeli-controlled areas as little as possible--something that might well be another innovation of this Plan.

Clearly, a lot of thought has gone into this idea. Will it be accepted?

Well, in Israel at least, this Plan will be debated. As with all past 'plans', it aims to change the 'status quo' for both sides. As time unfolds --and if you follow this Israeli debate--you'll learn why Israel will be divided over it.

In the end, however, it won't matter what Israelis conclude--or do--about the Plan. Yes, Israelis will certainly vent their passions over it. But that venting will be nothing more than an empty exercise. It will be wasted energy.

It will be wasted energy because the Palestinians will never  say yes to it--ever.  Palestinian leader Mahmmoud Abbas has said all along--since the end of December 2017-- that this deal is dead. He's said all along it didn't matter. He's said all along he was rejecting it, sight-unseen.

Even without looking at details, he understood that this Peace Plan wasn't for him a deal at all. It was a slap in the face (here). 

From his point of view, Abbas is 100% correct. This deal is stillborn for Abbas and his followers because it would mean the end of the Palestinian dream. Abbas will never say 'yes' to a Plan that wouldn't just end the Palestinian Cause (here). This Plan, Abbas has said, "aims to liquidate [my emphasis] the Palestinian cause (sic)" (ibid).

This Abbas-led hostility to peace is what all Peace Planners for the Arab-Israel have always missed or chosen to miss. Abbas--and his predecessor, Arafat--have never wanted a state to call their own, 'to live side-by-side with Israel in peace and security'. The "Palestinian Cause" is not about just statehood. It's about a new state that replaces Israel, a state that would take over all of modern Israel and wipe the Jewish state off the face of the planet.

To see this truth, all you need to do is look at another map--that of Palestine as envisioned by  the Palestine Cause:



Related image
(courtesy of palwatch.org)


This picture immediately above is the Palestine envisioned by Abbas (standing on the left in this picture, holding the frame). It's a map of Israel, with Arabic text on it, that renames Israel as 'Palestine'. 

Abbas knew from the very beginning of Trump's administration that the Trump Peace Plan would never do Abbas's bidding and convert Israel into 'Palestine'. For Abbas, this Trump Plan is no different from all other Plans: It's just one more reprint of the West's silly desire to create a two-state solution for this conflict. 

Abbas doesn't want a two-state solution. He's never wanted a two-state solution. He wants one-state solution--an Arab-Muslim nation that sits on top of a destroyed-and-replaced Israel--a 'Palestine' similar to what you see above.

That is the Palestinian dream--to replace Israel with a Muslim 'Palestine'. That dream is the essence of  the 'Palestinian Cause'. 

Therefore, any Peace Plan that ignores this Palestinian vision for nationhood is automatically 'dead on arrival'. Such a Plan is useless. It doesn't bring Abbas peace--or fulfill the Palestinian dream. Instead, it "liquidates" the Palestinian Cause--because the Palestinian Cause isn't about peace. It's about conquest. 

To the West, a "Peace" Plan is an attempt to avoid or end war. Put another way, peace is about "liquidating" the need for war. 

That's not Abbas' idea of Peace. His idea of Peace is a Region with no Israel, anywhere.

This is why Trump's Plan will fail. It leaves Israel intact. It won't satisfy the Palestinian dream.

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