One Israeli view of US midterm elections

You know about this week's US 'midterm' elections, right (on November 6, 2018)? Democrats won enough seats in the US House of Representatives to become the dominant Party in the House. Republicans held onto their majority in the Senate--and actually increased its majority in the Senate.

What's the meaning of these results? Some in America say it proves that America has repudiated Trump by putting Democrats in control of the House. Some say it means Trump has now lost control of the US government. 

Those evaluations may be wrong. You see, US 'midterm' elections (elections exactly mid-way between a President's four-year term) are traditionally not friendly at all to a sitting President. Traditionally, the Party that holds the Presidency loses seats in both House and Senate in these midterms. 

Some say that, traditionally, midterms are a reflection of how Americans rate a President's performance. Some say, midterms are, traditionally, a referendum on a President's job performance.

Just as traditionally, a President's Party loses seats in both the House and the Senate as a result of midterm elections. In fact, some say that, in the 84 years between 1934 midterms and the 2018 midterms (the last 21 midterm elections), the President's Party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate as a result of a midterm election.

Apparently, American don't much care for how a President is performing in the middle of his 4-year term. Apparently, Americans uses these midterm election to send a President a message: we don't like what you've done so far.

For example, look at midterm results for President Barack Obama's first midterm election, 2010. His Party didn't lose 30 seats in the House (the recent average). It lost 63 seats. 

His Party didn't lose 4 seats in the Senate (the recent average). It lost 6.

Final election results for all 2018 midterm races aren't in yet. Some races may require a recount. But as things now stand it looks like President Donald Trump's Republican Party also failed to match the average losses established during the last 84 years.

For example, it appears right now that Trump's Party didn't lose 30 seats in the House. Depending upon final vote-counts, Republicans may have lost as many as  35. That's an above average loss. But it's nowhere near Obama's 63-seat loss in 2010. 

Trump's Party also didn't lose 4 seats in the Senate (recent average). His Party looks to have picked up an additional 1 or 2 seats (again, depending on final count numbers). 

There are three conclusions from these numbers, none of which is a negative for Trump. First, Trump did better than Obama, whose "excellence" as President is practically worshiped by Democrats. Second, it appears that Trump's Party didn't lose any seats in the Senate. There, his Party did significantly better than the 'worshiped' Obama. Third, all the headlines around the world that suggest that Trump lost big-time in these midterms are false.

Nevertheless, the 'Trump is now wounded' political message will play out well across the world. It's the message anti-US and pro-Leftist elites want you to see. Actual election results don't matter. What matters is the anti-Trump narrative.

What does Israel think of these US election results? Views vary, of course. But there's one Israeli view that might be typical. 

This view comes in the form of a cartoon. But it's not a simple cartoon. It's tricky. Like the US election itself, you'll have to look very, very closely to see what this one Israeli view actually means. 

The cartoon below is from the venerable Shlomo Cohen, who publishes regularly on israelhayom. The cartoon was first published (here) on November 8, 2018:  






If, like some readers, you aren't able to figure out what the cartoon 'says', here are a couple of hints: first, look closely at the jet engines on the plane in the picture (which, of  course, is depicted as Trump's official US President's 'Air Force One' aircraft). One engine cover has the decal of an elephant--you can see the elephant's red tail. In America, the elephant is mascot for Trump's political Party--the Republicans. 

The second engine cover above has a decal of the Democrat Party mascot--a donkey. As you may know, Democrats oppose Trump.

Can you see those two decals?

Here's a second hint. Democrats do not want the US to go in the same direction Trump appears to be taking the country. Democrats want the opposite of what Trump wants. Democrats want gun control, open borders, completely universal healthcare, increased support for Palestinians, more government regulation of business, more climate control regulation, higher taxes, potentially less support for Israel--and no sanctions against Iran.

Look again at  the cartoon. Look at the direction each jet engine faces. The jet engine with the Republican insignia faces in the normal direction, with a massive air intake as a 'face'. This engine will push the Trump aircraft forward by sucking air into the engine through that 'face' and shooting it out the rear of the engine. 

Look at the engine with the Democrat insignia. It's reversed. That is, the engine faces the wrong direction. The back end of the engine faces forward. When this engine is fired up, it will push the 'Trump plain' backwards.

Therefore, the cartoon depicts what the cartoonist believes has happened in the US: two opposing forces (Democrat vs Republican) trying to push the Trump 'machine' both forward and backwards at the same time. The result, we infer, may well mean the plane makes no forward progress at all.

It's a good cartoon. It captures the current conventional wisdom about the assumed impact on US governance of a Democrat-controlled House and a Republican-controlled Senate: a do-nothing government.

Don't believe it. Trump isn't frozen by a Democrat-controlled House. He still has several 'political arrows'  in his 'political quiver'. He can still move forward much of his political agenda- -and, maybe, most of what may be his most important political goal--to appoint conservative judges to the federal court system in order to push the ideological position of federal courts to the Right (here).

Stay tuned. That huge 'machine' in the cartoon may not be as 'dead in the air' as everyone thinks. Trump may not be as 'handcuffed' by this election as Democrats would like us to think. 

So why is Israel concerned? Because Israel always worries about the US. Israel is always nervous about US attitudes.

Israel worries too much about the US.