Do not envy
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He has to decide what to do about
Iran. If he does nothing, Israel could get nuked. If he attacks, all Hell
breaks out: Iran will fire missiles at Israel; Hizbullah and Hamas would
declare Holy War; and Syria (or Hizbullah) could attack with chemical weapons.
A war could cost Israel more than 167 billion shekel in direct cost and damages
over five years, according to one estimate. Israel’s economy will suffer. The
center of Israel, where 70 per cent of the population resides, could turn into
a war zone.
Those who
attack Israel, meanwhile, could suffer an apocalypse. One report recently described Israel as
capable of pounding Syria and Lebanon back to pre-history. Iran has already put
the West on notice that, if Israel attacks, Iran will take its revenge against
the West. In a war against Israel, Syria and Lebanon might not be the only
nations to return to the Stone Age.
How do
Western powers handle this potential destruction? By pressuring Israel.
Prime
Minister Netanyahu is not amused.
He has good
reason to be miffed. After Netanyahu made it clear to US Secretary of Defense
John Panetta that Israel has the right to protect itself, Britain and Germany
made it equally clear that if Israel attacked Iran, they would not support
Israel. Then, perhaps to make sure that Netanyahu got the West’s message, the
highest ranking military officer in the US, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff General Martin Dempsey, echoed the British-German threat when he said
that if Israel attacked, the US would also not assist Israel. According to a
recent news analysis, Mr Netanyahu was so ‘impressed’ by the British and German
‘warnings’ that he changed his strategy. Instead of continuing an aggressive
stance towards Iran, he backed off; he demanded only that the West set
deadlines and ‘redlines’ for Iran, to pressure Iran.
But his
effort to lower the heat had no effect. If anything, it might have suggested
that Israel’s leadership would fold under pressure. Less than two weeks after
reportedly making his change, Netanyahu supposedly ‘blew up’ in a meeting with
the US Ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro (Mr Shapiro denies this). Mr Netanyahu
was angered by what he termed, ‘US stalling’ over Iran, and by continuing
American pressure on Israel, not Iran.
He had asked
for deadlines. He’s gotten nothing but threats--against Israel.
Now, US
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has formalized the US position on Israel’s
call for deadlines. She announced (September 11, 2012), ‘we’re not setting
deadlines,’ thereby capping a fortnight of messages that told Israel that the
West was interested in supporting neither a military option or deadlines,
Israel’s two most important strategic choices in its battle to stop Iran’s
nuclear ambitions.
Likud MK Danny
Danon called Mrs Clinton’s remarks, ‘a slap in Israel’s face.’
The day
Clinton’s remarks were published, former Israeli Ambassador to the US, Zalman
Shoval, offered the observation, ‘We need to get used to the fact that, as
usual, we are alone.’
But we are
not just alone. What has happened is not
simply, ‘usual’. The remarks by Mrs Clinton and US General Dempsey have changed
Israel’s relationship with its most important ally: if Mr. Netanyahu wanted the
West to draw a line in the sand, that’s exactly what he’s gotten—a line in the
sand over which Israel cannot step. President Obama, supposedly so
careful to avoid disturbing American Jewish support for his re-election, has apparently
pushed aside that concern to clarify his attitude towards Israel, and that clarification
is decidedly unfriendly: Israel cannot attack; the West will neither attack Iran
nor install deadlines to help Israel; Iran can continue to enrich uranium because
only ‘negotiations’ are required and
Israel has been put on notice that it must do nothing or suffer the
consequences.
These are
not gestures of an ally. They are the hallmarks of arrogant disregard for an
ally. Clearly, Israel can attack. But the West’s hostility creates for
Israel a nightmare scenario: if she
attacks she could be destroyed—because allies may refuse to assist her--and if she
waits she could also be destroyed.
Fortunately,
this movie has not yet ended. Yes, as the Jewish New Year approaches, the heroine
is being tied to the proverbial railroad track. The villain is Iran. But
America ties the ropes, with the British and Germans standing nearby cheering
the Americans on while hissing at the heroine. To those who know their Tanach
(our Jewish Bible) and its commentaries, this sounds a lot like the descendants
of Edom preparing the dogs of war while Persia and Yishmael strain to strike
the first blow against Zion.
This is
going to be some movie: the enemies of Zion turn against Zion just as the G-d
of Israel prepares to judge the world.
Happy New
Year.
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