American Jews, American demographics-- and aliyah

Counting Jews in America is not easy. As far back as the mid-1950’s, when the supposedly first objective Jewish head-count was taken, not everyone agreed with the result. That official census identified an American Jewish population of approximately 5,013,000. But that number did not include (among others not counted) children below age 14; so some researchers have recalculated that there were perhaps 5,250,000 Jews—more or less—at that time. (see Portrait of American Jews, Samuel C. Heilman, University of Washington Press, 1998). Today, census-taking is more inclusive. But counting Jews has become controversial:  when the 2010 Jewish census was taken, officials faced a vexing question--who is a Jew? For example, should census-takers count individuals who say they want nothing to do with anything Jewish?  Should they include Jews who have already opted for another religion? Should they count the growing number of American converts who have come to their Jewishness through non-Orthodox conversion?  These questions were not addressed to everyone’s satisfaction; that might not be possible. But the impact of these questions on the census was clear: the final 2010 Jewish census estimates range from 5,275,000 to 6,400,000+,  depending upon who had been included in the count. (see discussions in World Jewish Population, 2010, Dashefsky, DellaPergola,  Sheskin, North American Jewish Data Bank, University of Connecticut, 2010).

This range seems far beyond any normal margin of error. It suggests unresolved census-taking issues. It might also suggest a national Jewish community undergoing significant change.

Counting small groups in America is not an exact science, and trouble counting heads shows up outside the Jewish community. The number of Muslims in America, for example, suffers the same imprecision—their population estimate ranges from approximately 2,200,000 to 5,500,000.

Nevertheless, while perfect numbers are difficult to come by, we can still look at American demographics and identify some trends. First, American Jews reject aliyah. It appears that less than 150,000 American Jews have moved to Israel since 1948. The true number may actually be closer to 100,000.  This suggests that the total number of Jews leaving America for Israel in the last 64 years may not exceed 2% of total Jewish population (depending upon how you ‘average’ population numbers). Today, the number of Americans moving to Israel is, optimistically, 3,800 per year. At this rate, it would take perhaps 1,500 years for American Jews to come to Israel.

American Jews do not do aliyah.

A second trend is downright dangerous: some estimate that 60,000 American Jews walk away from Judaism every year (see Y. Kemelman, Diaspora is Jewry’s Graveyard, Urim Publications, Jerusalem, 2009). Put another way, for every Jew who makes aliyah, some seventeen Jews voluntarily reject their Judaism. In ten years, we might therefore see 38,000 American Jews opting to go to Israel—and 600,000 American Jews opting to leave Judaism. That’s not a good Jewish trend, especially when it combines with American Jewish birth numbers that are below replacement-rate.

This abandonment of Judaism has consequences for America’s Jews.

One consequence is a third trend, one that reveals the relationship between America’s Jewish population and America’s total population. In 1956, American Jewry represented more than 3% of total American population. Today, that number ranges from perhaps 1.70% - 2.0%.  Our piece of the American population pie shrinks.

Look at it this way: since 1950, total American population has increased perhaps 107 per cent; the American Jewish population has been either flat (using the lower 2010 census number) or has increased only some 22 per cent (using the higher number); either way, Jewish numbers shrink relative to the total.  

This shrinking share of America could create political consequences because of a fourth trend: America’s Muslim population is growing. True, clear census results for American Muslims are difficult to get. But we do know this: according to one survey, between the years 2000 -2010, the number of mosques in America rose from 1,209 to 2,106—a 74% increase. By contrast, in 2001, there were 3,727 synagogues in America—and that number does not really grow. While we may not know exact Muslim numbers, we might suggest that the demographic arc for Jews in America points downward just as that same arc for Muslims in America tilts upward (those newly-built mosques are not empty).

Population sectors, particularly Jewish and Muslim, can have opposing political interests.  At some point, political power for a sector can decrease in the face of a growing population which holds opposing values. This is not prejudice; it is simple politics. As the Jewish population ratio shrinks (most strikingly through Jewish abandonment) and the Muslim ratio strengthens, political influence will reflect those changes.

The handwriting is on the wall. The American Jewish wheel of fortune has reached its apex. It turns downward as Muslim influence stirs.

Will these trends motivate American Jews to reconsider aliyah?

You tell me.