In the middle of unity talks, Gantz "threatens" Netanyahu?

In Israel, unity talks between Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu aren't going well. The two men are supposed to be talking about how to form a new coalition government, wherein both men get sufficient power to be satisfied. But by midday, April 6, 2020, Gantz--supposedly focused on creating unity with Netanyahu--seemed publicly frustrated. Instead of discussing 'unity', Gantz sent a threatening letter to Netanyahu: Gantz said he expected Netanyahu to sign a  final agreement to enter a unity government--within the hour" (here)--or else. 

Gantz explained what his 'or else" meant: if Netanyahu didn't agree to a Gantz-driven (instead of a shared) unity agreement "within the hour", Gantz would use his new power as Speaker of the Knesset to go to the Knesset to advance legislation to bar any Israeli who faces criminal indictment from forming a government. This is, of course, a new law that would immediately end Netanyahu's participation in talks for a ruling government. His career would be over because he's an Israeli who is currently under indictment. 

Under the law, Netanyahu will be barred from forming a government. That would take effect, we assume, immediately. It would then stand in place until Netanyahu's trial ends and he's found innocent. If he's found guilty, he  could go to jail--or be forced to retire permanently from politics.

Either way, Gantz wins, Netanyahu loses.

Netanyahu's trial is set to begin May 4th. It's expected not to end anytime soon. Such a law would leave Gantz to control talks on his own, with no one to share his power. In this scenario, he'd probably be crowned Prime Minister faster than you could say 'make me king'. It would certainly be one way for Gantz to solve his problem with the stubborn Netanyahu.

Naturally, Likud reacted immediately to this threat, calling it "Mafia tactics" (here). Likud also scolded Gantz with, "Benny, this is not how you create unity. This is how you incite and divide" (ibid). These seemed valid points.

This threat raises a question: would Knesset Members (MK's) whom Gantz needs in order to pass this threatened legislation actually support him? Gantz needs 61 MK's to pass a law. Will he get those 61 votes for this law? 

That support was once Gantz's for the asking. But that 'was then', when Gantz was seen by many as the new political hero who finally had gotten the best chance to defeat Netanyahu. 

Now, it's different. Gantz isn't so much the the hero any more. He's more the political traitor because he's the man who betrayed his Party's pledge never to sit in a government with the hated evil one, Netanyahu.

Now, Gantz has gone and done something he'd promised never to do--sit with Netanyahu in a government coalition. Would his former friends still befriend him? 

Plus, Gantz's Knesset numbers have changed. Once, before his betrayal (negotiating with Netanyahu) caused his Blue-White alliance to break up, Gantz had 33 Knesset votes to control--plus promises of support from another 28/29 Mks. 

But now, after the Blue-White's break-up, Gantz has only 15 seats, not 33. He could certainly get some of his former 29 supporters to support a law to dump Netanyahu. But he now needs 46 votes to pass his law (for a total of 61). Since many among those who abandoned Gantz's Party see him as a traitor, would he get those 46?  

That's an open question. No one, not even Gantz, knows the answer. Passing an anti-Netanyahu law isn't a sure thing for Gantz. He could press for a vote--and lose. That humiliation could end his political career.

By 4 pm Monday, April 6, 2020, Netanyahu may have already figured out this political calculus. He didn't frighten. He didn't give in  to the threat. He stonewalled Gantz. He signed nothing--and his bargaining position (regarding the issues of judges and sovereignty) actually hardened, something which, at least briefly, revived the Right-wing (here).

Did Gantz respond to this hardening by Netanyahu by heading straight to the Knesset to seek his anti-Netanyahu law, as he'd threatened? No, he did not. 

Did this failure to do as he threatened enhance Gantz's credibility in the Knesset? I don't think it did.

The longer these talks go on, the less competent Gantz appears. This isn't good for Gantz. It's potentially very good for Netanyahu.

How will all of this end? Stay tuned.