Gantz-Netanyahu unity talks: the vigil has begun

Well, apparently, maybe, the waiting is over--almost. Gantz and Netanyahu are at it again; 'it' being talks to create a 'unity' coalition. Can we at last see light at the end of the tunnel? 

Yes, there is light at the end of the tunnel. But is that light the dawning of a unity coalition--or an oncoming train headed straight at us?

We can't tell.

Here's what we know. First, despite our collective hope for a unity government, a fourth election is still possible. Second, it's important to note that much of this week's political speculation has turned out to be accurate. For example, unity talks have indeed stalled. Gantz has indeed been tough--and obstinate. Gantz has indeed pushed an agenda that appears more Left than 'Centrist'. 

Then, third, Netanyahu's Right-wing bloc is indeed close to open rebellion. Netanyahu's Right-wing support in the Knesset fears that Netanyahu surrenders too much to Gantz (for example, here). If the Right-wing does in fact come to this conclusion, it could turn against Netanyahu. 

This is no empty threat. A Right-bloc rebellion could well put at risk any Knesset legislation Netanyahu seeks to pass (as he serves his share of days as PM). The Right bloc could abandon Netanyahu. This means the Right bloc could vote with Left and Center-Left Knesset Members against Netanyahu. The result of such a rebellion could be that any Knesset legislation Netanyahu seeks to pass in the Knesset won't attract enough support to pass. His ability to lead would be hamstrung.

These unity talks are at a crossroad. For Israel, 'unity' doesn't automatically means 'working together'. A poorly built 'unity' coalition could mean more political divisions, not less divisiveness. In the end, "unity" could turn into political chaos.   

If a 'unity' coalition can work together, Israel should be able to continue its so-far successful coronavirus battle (it's been ranked first in the world (here)). But if such a coalition can't work together, what happens then? Will Israel's corona success be degraded by infighting?   

We don't know.  

Today, Gantz's Blue-White Party has made an announcement. At app 2:15pm Israel time this afternoon (April 2, 2020), Blue-White declared that the end of the talks are near. This suggests, we believe, that a unity government will soon become a 'done deal' (here). But we can't be sure that that's precisely what the announcement actually meant to convey.  

Gantz has already said that, if there is no final agreement signed 'before the weekend', talks will be completely called off. Pesach (the up-coming, anticipated national Passover break) begins Wednesday night, April 8, 2020. If talks are called off by April 4th or 5th, Gantz's chance to get a unity coalition with Netanyahu might be finished. 

Remember, in Israel's complex and arcane election rule-book, Gantz faces a negotiation deadline--April 12, 2020.  April 12th is the final date for Gantz to control unity negotiations to form a ruling coalition. After April 12, Netanyahu gets his chance to control the unity talks to form a government (unless Gantz gets an extension--extensions are another of the arcane rules in Israel's election rule-book). 

If there's no extension, Netanyahu will have app 28 days to be successful (unless he's given a different time-frame: another rule). If Netanyahu isn't successful forming a ruling coalition, the only option for Israel will be a fourth election (another rule)--unless, that is, Netanyahu acts to call for 'early elections' (another rule)--which in fact may or may not happen (because of yet another rule--don't ask). 

Keep in  mind also that even if we get a unity agreement right now, all will not necessarily be well. That is, whenever a unity coalition is announced, we'll still not know from that announcement what, exactly, Gantz and Netanyahu agreed to. At that moment, we may not know all the dirty little details--where the devil lurks; or, as Israel's political insiders might say, the moment a unity announcement is made that a deal has been finalized, no one in Israel will immediately know for sure If such a deal makes Israel the winner--or the deal's biggest loser.  

Stay tuned. Surely, we'll soon find out what is that light at the end of the tunnel--salvation, or a train wreck about to happen?