From Israel: will summer heat kill the coronavirus--or more people?

As nations around the world struggle to cope with the pandemic called, coronavirus, many now begin to face a new challenge: extreme temperatures. Yes, there is some evidence--from lab tests--that suggest increased heat and humidity might slow the spread of corona (here and here). Certainly, if that happened, a heat wave would be great. 

But many experts aren't convinced that a heat wave will help. Lab results aren't the real world. In fact, no one knows if a heat wave will help reduce the spread of corona (here)--or, worse, if it would actually spark more death by killing more of the most vulnerable among us, the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions (here).

 A heat wave during a pandemic creates a potential 'double-whammy'. That is, when extreme temperatures combine with the corona virus, the possibility exists that communities could see a deadly one-two punch against the elderly and the ill. 

Or, as one health professional has put it, for older people and for those with chronic medical issues, a heat wave during a pandemic can feel like "getting hit twice" (ibid). If a heat wave combines with the coronavirus, no one knows if the elderly and the medically vulnerable could cope with both a corona crisis and a heat crisis striking at the same time.

So, as heat waves hit across southwest America, southern Europe and Israel, we can ask a question: will corona death rates fall during a heat wave only to be replaced with a spike in heat-related deaths? 

For the past six weeks, during the height of the pandemic, millions of people have self-isolated in homes and apartments that lack adequate air conditioning (here). In cool weather, such a lack of air conditioning isn't a problem. But during a heat wave, little or no air conditioning can prove deadly (ibid).

High heat may not kill the virus. But it will kill people. 

This is a timely topic. As heat waves strike across the globe, public health officials can't relax. High heat brings its own problems: beaches, for example. As heat waves come, beaches fill with people seeking relief (here). From pictures taken of beaches filling up with people, it seemed clear that some beach-goers don't appear to observe social distancing or self-isolation rules (here). This lack of self-restraint could complicate the fight against the coronavirus because it could transform the above-mentioned 'double whammy' (corona-plus-heat) danger into a 'triple-whammy': a corona-heat-social-distancing danger (this assumes that social distancing effectively keeps the virus from spreading).

If summer heat does in fact bring a positive advantage to the fight against corona, will beach-goers (and shoppers, as economies open up) who violate social distancing cancel that advantage? We don't know. 

To give you a sense of the power of this heat, my own outdoor temperature on my apartment porch (we live in Israel's desert) on the morning of May 19th was over 100--by 10:30 am. The temperature rose to 104 by noon--and stayed there until 5 pm, by which time it had dropped only to 103. On this day, it's possible that more people died from heat stroke (at least 3, here) than from coronavirus (1) (here).

May 20th was a repeat: our porch temperature hit 102 by 9 am. It rose to 103 by 1:00 pm before dropping only to 102 by 5 pm. 

May 21st was more-of-the-same: 102 at 9 am; then, by 1 pm, 104 (I posted this essay before 5pm, the 21st).

Our outdoor porch thermometer is in the shade. I have no idea what the temperature in the sun has been. All I can tell you is, on the 19th--and again on the 21st--the midday sun was brutal. In Israel, heat sufferers have continued to drop from heat stroke and heat exhaustion. 

I can understand why.

In the US, extreme heat kills more people each year than any other weather-related event (here). My guess is, this observation holds true for Israel. So what happens when extreme heat collides with a pandemic, while beach-goers and shoppers ignore social distancing? 

No one knows.

In Israel, as elsewhere, temperatures rise while local economies begin to approach "fully open". For example , in Israel, people are now starting to go out. Malls and open markets (the 'shuk') are open. Schools are almost all open now.  Synagogues are open (as of May 20th), though with some restrictions (here). Restaurants are scheduled to open next week.

The questions Israel faces today are the same questions everyone around the world asks: as we all leave our lock-down status, will corona cases spike? Will the summer's heat slow down the spread of corona? Will the heat help our health--or simply kill more of us? 

We don't know. But we'll surely find out soon enough.