National elections in Israel!

Israel goes to the polls: on September 17, 2019, we will vote for a new national leader. 

The current leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has already won a national election this year, just five months ago, in April, 2019. But we now have an upcoming follow-up second election because after winning that April election, Netanyahu couldn't "form a majority governing coalition", something an election-winner in Israel needs to do to become Prime Minister. 

You see, after winning a national Israel election, the winner must convince enough political party leaders who (typically but not necessarily) share his basic philosophy to partner with him--to agree to form a 61-seat majority in Israel's 120-seat Parliament, the Knesset. 

An Israeli election winner goes nowhere without first demonstrating that he has packaged--through agreements--a minimum 61-seat majority in the Knesset. 

This is a peculiar system Israel has, much closer to the English election model that the American. In America, a Presidential election winner wins--subject only to a final vote in the US Electoral College. In Israel, there's no Electoral College. There's just this need for the election-winner to put together a 'coalition' of partners who promise (on paper) to help the winner create a 61-seat majority. 

In Israel, if an election winner can't attract enough 'partners' to get those 61 seats, the runner-up gets the chance to do it. But this year, because the sitting Prime Minister (PM) won the election, he was the one to get first crack at forming a coalition. When he failed to do that, he used his power as PM to shut down the government so that the runner-up couldn't get the opportunity to see if he could gather the 'seats' he needed to rule. That 'shut-down' forced this new election.

For all this is worth, few complained when Netanyahu shut down the government because the runner-up in that April election--former Army Chief-of-Staff Benny Gantz--had fewer options that Netanyahu to form a government. Therefore, a new election was the only option--at least, that's what most here believe. 

So what are we going to be doing in two days' time? We're going to voting booths again--and we hope this time to get a different result.

From all the pre-election polls taken during the current election season, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. From those polls, neither of the two front-runners in this new election (who are again projected to be Netanyahu and Gantz) looks to be able to win and get those required 61 seats. 

Either one could win this election. The polling is that close. But neither looks able to form a 61-seat coalition, given how this process traditionally works.

Ordinarily, Netanyahu would win this election. Ordinarily, he'd have few difficulties forming a government. But after more than 13 years in power, Netanyahu will struggle to win this election. 

It's not that Gantz--or anyone else running--is so formidable.  No one against Netanyahu is. No one can match Netanyahu's appeal or campaign style. But Netanyahu is fighting an uphill battle right now against the most formidable opponent he's ever faced--Netanyahu himself.

As in America, the Left here in Israel hates the national leader. Many more voters in what we call the 'Center-Left' feel the same way. They want Netanyahu out. They want him gone. They simply can't stand his politics or his policies.

His enemies say he favors the religious too much (unless you actually ask the religious). His enemies claim he won't negotiate a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority. 

His enemies hate that he keeps winning. They simply can't beat him at the ballot box. They hate him for that alone.

So they seek, as some have argued, to remove him through Israel's criminal justice system. If they can't get him ousted through the ballot box, they'll do it with accusations of bribery and 'corruption'. 

They'll destroy his name. They'll destroy his family. They'll destroy his reputation.

Or, better yet, they'll get him sent to jail.

They're almost there. The accusations against him have muscle. The police--who have a sordid history of acting corruptly to oust political enemies--have investigated Netanyahu and--some say, no surprise here--have put forward formal charges. The country's Attorney General thinks the police investigations are compelling--strong enough to put the Prime Minister on trial for bribery, corruption and something in Israel called, 'breach of trust'. 

For Netanyahu, this means that, on September 17, 2019, he will try to get re-elected. Then, less than three weeks later, he will try to stay out of jail by appearing at a pre-indictment hearing. If he loses at this hearing, he will go on trial. 

Rafters all over Israel will shake with calls for Netanyahu to step down while on trial. The chandeliers of the Knesset will rattle with calls for him to be forced out of office while on trial.

How would you like to run for office with a sword like that hanging over your head?

Normally, when a politician is this close to being indicted, his political career tanks, if only because he could spend more time with his lawyers preparing his case than campaigning. Then again, there's voter sentiment: why would a voter vote for someone this close to going to jail? 

But Netanyahu is no ordinary politician. He hasn't become Israel's longest-serving elected leader in Israel's history for  nothing. He isn't going to go down without a fight. He might even complete some heretofore unanticipated agreement(s) with other political Parties on the Right just before the election that could drive him across the finish line in first place. 

What will happen in this election? Will Netanyahu be trounced? Will he win despite the pending court appearance? If he actually wins, will he be able to form a government (with those required 61 seats)?

Or,  will we end up as stale-mated as in the April election? 

Stay tuned. We'll have all the answers soon.

If you live in Israel and have Israeli citizenship, go vote. This election is important. Your vote could decide our near-term political future.

The election could be that close.